How Scottish Labour's Kezia Dugdale may have handed the election to the Tories

[Denzil_DC]

21. OK, to illustrate some of what I'm saying here,

Muriel, you'll know by now that I'm not daft enough to make election predictions (not to say that I don't make assumptions and results like the EU referendum and the scale of SNP losses in this last election didn't surprise me, of course). But I did do a bit of an analysis of my own Westminster seat on an earlier thread:

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{Brendan O'Hara, Argyll & Bute}

He came from nowhere (in historical party standing terms in this constituency) to win the seat with an 8,000-plus majority (44.3%) at the last election from three-term (and OK at a constituency level, but pretty useless in Parliament) Lib Dem Alan Reid (27.9%), who'd taken over the seat from another three-term Lib Dem in 2001.

O'Hara's been fine as far as I'm concerned. It's a tough call for any MP in this constituency, getting round a large, disparate and in parts rather remote area while maintaining a presence at Westminster.

The Tories were a distant third at the 2015 election, with 7,733 votes (14.9%) to Labour's fourth-placed 5,394 (10.4%).

The other parties have been slow to declare candidates, only Labour's Michael Kelly (who I've never seen or heard of before) standing against him so far.

His previous Lib Dem opponent Reid took the loss hard and has been fishing around for a political role at various levels since, and might have been in the running to contest his old seat, but he finally won an Argyll & Bute council seat in last week's election.

His previous Tory opponent, Alastair Redman (another who's been a regular contender for various roles in the area over the years), also won a seat in last week's election.

O'Hara's prospects depend on turnout, who decides to stand against him and who tactical voters decide has the best chance of defeating him.

In 2015, UKIP only got 1,311 votes (2.5%), so there's not much slack to gain from them for his future Tory opponent. The Lib Dems have historical strength in the constituency, but this seemed to evaporate at the last election, and there's been no sign of a resurgence at Scottish national level. They might be more likely Tory switchers, and possibly vice versa, but note that the Tories' total 2015 vote was less than O'Hara's majority over the Lib Dems with their sitting MP. It remains to be seen whether Labour voters would be willing to switch to Tory or Lib Dem in an effort to unseat him.

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And here's how it panned out, from that same thread:

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O'Hara was re-elected, but the Tories gained a lot of vote share to run second, at the expense of the Lib Dems who were a distant third. Labour came a slightly more distant but not disgraceful fourth - which is remarkable since their candidate didn't start campaigning at all till the last couple of weeks of the election due to prior commitments and had a habit of taking the huff in hustings and stomping out when challenged, on one occasion calling a would-be constituent a "fat bastard".

Ironically, the Corbyn effect might have helped the SNP in this constituency - Labour's vote held up, rather than defecting en masse to vote tactically (what sort of unreasoning hatred would make a Labour supporter envisage voting Tory, I can't imagine, but it looks like it happened elsewhere).
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Most of the time, an 8,000-plus majority in a seat like this would class it as "safe", but did I sound like I classed it as such?

Look at what happened to the Lib Dem, Tory and Labour votes, then tell me where those extra Tory 2017 votes came from (in this instance it looks like it wasn't from Labour, which probably saved O'Hara's seat - thanks, Mr Corbyn?):

2015:

SNP (Brendan O'Hara) 22,959 votes Vote Share: 44.3% Net change: +25.3%

Lib Dems (Alan Reid) 14,486 votes Vote Share: 27.9% Net change: −3.7%

Conservatives (Alastair Redman) 7,733 votes Vote Share: 14.9% Net change: −9.1%

Labour (Mary Galbraith) 5,394 votes Vote Share: 10.4% Net change: −12.3%

UKIP (Caroline Santos) 1,311 votes Vote Share: 2.5% Net change: (didn't stand before, UKIP didn't stand in 2017 either)

Majority: 8,473 votes (16.3%)
Turnout 51,883 (75.3%) +8.0%
SNP gain from Lib Dem
Swing +14.5%

2017:

SNP (Brendan O'Hara) 17,304 votes Vote Share: 36.0% Net change: -8.3%

Conservatives (Gary Mulvaney) 15,976 votes Vote Share: 33.2% Net change: +18.3%

Lib Dems (Alan Reid) 8,745 votes Vote Share: 18.2% Net change: -9.7%

Labour (Michael Kelly) 6,044 votes Vote Share: 12.6% Net change: +2.2%

Majority: 1,328 votes (2.8%)
Turnout: 48,069 (71.5%) -3.8%
SNP hold
Swing: -13.3%

There are obviously factors that make this seat unique, like any other (O'Hara's strongly anti-Trident in the constituency where it's based not being the least of them). In view of the Labour candidate's habit of storming out of hustings when accused of being a paper candidate, his vote held up pretty well.