CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Pennsylvania Senate contest narrows

[Joe Cool]

4. 2016 and 2018 Senate elections in PA

In 2016, third party candidates got about 4% of the vote for the Senate election in Pennsylvania. In 2018, third party candidates got 1.6% of the vote.
The Keystone party is a splinter group of the Libertarian party.
Third party candidates will take more votes away from Oz than Fetterman.
You can add about a 1% net gain for Fetterman from third party voting. Net gain means Fetterman doesn't gain 1% but gains a +1% in the difference between Oz and him due to third party voting.



2016
Republican Pat Toomey (incumbent) 2,951,702 48.77%
Democratic Katie McGinty 2,865,012 47.34%
Libertarian Edward T. Clifford III 235,142 3.89%


2018
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 2,792,437 55.74%
Republican Lou Barletta 2,134,848 42.62%
Libertarian Dale Kerns 50,907 1.02%
Green Neal Gale 31,208 0.62%