The seven political states of Pennsylvania

[modrepub]

2. Pretty Good Analysis

I wouldn't put the Lehigh Valley in with the NE; it's got more ties to Philadelphia than Scranton and its now large enough folks from the NE are commuting into that area for work more so than reverse.

Two additional points. The map doesn't recognize that a lot of the areas that supported Trump are experiencing population declines so there is less to work with in 2020 than in 2016. The second major division is between those areas dependent on blue collar manufacturing type jobs and more white collar, entertainment, financial, health care type employment. The former is more concentrated in SE portions of the state (Philly suburbs/202 corridor) while the latter is probably predominant over most of the rest of the state. I think the blue collar types are more aligned with Trump's message of "America First" while the latter isn't subject to those boogiemen or maybe less so outside H1-B issues. Trade is a very tricky policy that Trump and most Americans do not fully understand; tariffs on manufacturing leads to reprisals that can hurt other manufactures and farming interests. Economics can be exploited by folks like Trump, and IMO that's where his strength largely comes from (other than he's mean to the "elites" his folks seem to hate with a passion).

It will be a close fight for PA's EVs. In the end it will probably boil down to how well Biden does in the NE and how many folks in the suburban areas in the SE part of the state, who are more moderate on social issues, buy into the President's rhetoric on lawless city folk invading their neighborhoods.