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Florida

24601

(4,043 posts)

3. Not understanding the overwhelming disconnect with 538's most recent forecast

Reply to Tony_FLADEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 23, 2022, 07:14 PM

Oct 2022

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/florida/13/

Updated 11:53 Am on Sunday, October 23rd

538 has three projections based upon their models:

Lite - based on polls alone: Lynn at 45.1% and Luna at 51.9% "Luna favored"

Classic - "polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more": Lynn at 43.6% and Luna at 53.4% "Luna clearly favored"

Deluxe - "adds experts' ratings to the classic": Lynn at 42.2% and Luna at 54.8% "Luna clearly favored"

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Highlight:

My District That Was Gerrymandered to Be More Republican is Tied in the Latest Poll [View all] Tony_FLADEM Oct 2022 OP

GOTV for Eric Lynn! Cha Oct 2022 #1

More signs of a potentially great night for us. ColinC Oct 2022 #2

Not understanding the overwhelming disconnect with 538's most recent forecast 24601 Oct 2022 #3