Part 1: On April 20th, 2025, the United States may Cross the Point of No Return.

[ancianita]

27. Seriously, how does this unsourced "probabilistic forecast" help us? Even the footnotes have no sources.

For one thing, Medium's already wrong about conflating The Insurrection Act and martial law.

There have already been 30 invocations of the Insurrection Act.

Here's more info from the Brennan Center for Justice:

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained

Is invoking the Insurrection Act the same as declaring martial law?

The Insurrection Act does not authorize martial law. The term “martial law” has no established definition, but it is generally understood as a power that allows the military to take over the role of civilian government in an emergency. By contrast, the Insurrection Act generally permits the military to assist civilian authorities (whether state or federal), not take their place. Under current law, the president has no authority to declare martial law.

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/martial-law-explaineds :

Congress has placed clear and wide-ranging restrictions on the president’s ability to use the military domestically. A presidential declaration of martial law would violate these rules. The Constitution does not grant the president “conclusive and preclusive” power over the issue of domestic military deployment. On the contrary, it gives most of the relevant authority to Congress. Therefore, under Youngstown, the president would not have the constitutional authority to override the restrictions Congress has put in place, and a unilateral declaration of martial law would not survive a legal challenge.

Does the Constitution apply under martial law?

Yes. The federal government is bound at all times by the Constitution. Even under martial law, the government cannot suspend or violate constitutional rights. Additionally, martial law declarations are subject to judicial review. For example, if the federal government places a state or territory under martial law, individuals detained by the military can ask a federal court to order their release by petitioning for the writ of habeas corpus. Subsequently, if a court considers the petition, it can decide whether the declaration of martial law was constitutional in the first place.

Can states declare martial law?

The Supreme Court has held that individual states have the power to declare martial law — and such a declaration is valid simply if it is authorized by the constitution or laws of the state. States have declared martial law far more frequently than the federal government. However, even under martial law, state officials are bound both by the U.S. Constitution and by valid federal laws. Additionally, individuals can challenge a state declaration of martial law by seeking injunctive relief in federal court — and if they are detained, they can petition for the writ of habeas corpus.

Recently from reddit
Preparations that states can make (It's likely that the DGA has already made coordinated arrangements):
State governors need to form a compact to prevent military enforcement within their borders.
State legislators, governors, and AGs still loyal to the Constitution should work right now to
a) build the legal framework and communication networks necessary to create a viable compact of States to blunt impacts of the Insurrection Act,
b) prepare to prosecute multiple legal fights,
c) inform and advise citizens (of legal, transportation, supply depot help) in advance and repeatedly.

Furthermore, if Medium thinks the felon can scale up what Hitler did, they lack perspective