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EdmondDantes_

(541 posts)

45. Basically the entire country shifted red at the presidential level

Thu Jun 19, 2025, 09:46 PM

Thursday

Nearly 90% of counties in the country shifted red. Not even a little unsurprising that the swing counties would given that. Leaving out the full story makes it easy to create a false impression.

https://vividmaps.com/2024-presidential-election-county-by-county/

Getting struck by lightning is rare. Getting struck by lightning in a lightning storm while holding a big metal rod is a lot more likely.

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She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data [View all] liberalla Thursday OP

Trump's 'win' was a statistical improbability pfitz59 Thursday #1

not in multiple swing states and even in a few national polls Celerity Thursday #11

Polls were extraordinarily close. Many within the margin of error.... paleotn Thursday #22

Basically the entire country shifted red at the presidential level EdmondDantes_ Thursday #45

Not a false impression at all.... paleotn 22 hrs ago #62

That still shows that harris should have won at least two or three Tribetime Thursday #25

Not really fujiyamasan 21 hrs ago #64

I could accept Harris losing given the last-minute campaign, but valleyrogue Yesterday #61

Kick SheltieLover Thursday #2

Our gut feelings match the real math. yellow dahlia Thursday #3

So all 88 swing counties going red, and winning all 7 swing states outside the recount margin? questionseverything Thursday #4

The assumptions made to come up with that figure are ridiculous Wiz Imp Thursday #14

Could you give us a couple of specific examples to help us sort this out? Thanks. TheRickles Thursday #15

Unless they show exactly how they calculated that probability-- and all the input data LymphocyteLover Thursday #20

The article at the link describes their calculations: if 88 counties all flipped in one direction TheRickles Thursday #31

You can't just look at those that flipped. Wiz Imp Thursday #37

But why didn't any counties flip in the other direction? That is the key question. TheRickles Thursday #39

Because 90% of counties across the country went more red in 2024 than in 2020 EdmondDantes_ Thursday #46

Thank you for providing an actual answer: 90% of counties went redder. TheRickles Thursday #47

Most areas went more for Trump than in 2020. Wiz Imp Thursday #49

OK thanks. But the 50-50 toss-up is a big assumption for every state LymphocyteLover Thursday #53

Zero evidence? Fiendish Thingy Thursday #18

Here's the thing - I am actually open to believing that the election wasn't 100% fair Wiz Imp Thursday #29

They use their names, the data they use is from government reports questionseverything Thursday #28

They use their names? This Will Hold is somebody's name? Wiz Imp Thursday #34

Denial is a powerful coping mechanism, and part of grieving a loss Fiendish Thingy Thursday #5

Just curious, are you an American citizen questionseverything Thursday #7

I'm an American citizen and I agree with them Wiz Imp Thursday #13

Dual citizen Fiendish Thingy Thursday #17

Where do you vote? questionseverything Thursday #24

Nanaimo BC. Nt Fiendish Thingy Thursday #27

I've gotta ask this question. bluestarone Thursday #6

They aren't "findings", they are theories Fiendish Thingy Thursday #32

Harris/Walz won Clouds Passing Thursday #8

You convinced me. Congratulations! What a great argument you present! Wiz Imp Thursday #38

I'm not a lawyer, never was a debator. I read the evidence. Clouds Passing Thursday #44

Thanx for posting this Botany Thursday #9

A lot of Democratic voters were unhappy with the way Biden was treated Bluestocking Thursday #10

Many did vote but Peter Thiel's Palantir was running a clean up operation that would hide any evidence of .. Botany Thursday #12

This message was self-deleted by its author fujiyamasan 21 hrs ago #65

This message was self-deleted by its author fujiyamasan 21 hrs ago #66

Unless someone includes how many full paper recounts were done in US, ... Festivito Thursday #16

I can't believe any of this if it's only from a substack source. There have to be other sources. The Marc Elias Group ancianita Thursday #19

Elias is a lawyer, not a computer technician questionseverything Thursday #30

His firm is also litigating 55 cases. chowder66 Thursday #41

Elias is an incredible player in this fight for democracy questionseverything Thursday #42

Indeed he is. chowder66 Thursday #50

Why are some people Hornedfrog2000 Thursday #21

Bookmark TY Cha Thursday #23

i'm not a math person but et tu Thursday #26

Eloon and T💩p told on themselves repeatedly. In public. OMGWTF Yesterday #55

Cant wait for obnoxiousdrunk Thursday #33

Certainly worth pursuing. oasis Thursday #35

K n R Faux pas Thursday #36

If it's true that "everyone hates Ted Cruz," how does he stay in office? calimary Thursday #40

yeah... this "math" is trash.......... Takket Thursday #43

Kick musette_sf Thursday #48

Discrepancies between early/mail-in votes and day-of-election votes. Foolacious Thursday #51

Why this is important? Metaphorical Thursday #52

Quite simply, the polls were close anyway, but they were wrong. Statistically, that isn't that unlikely. Doodley Yesterday #54

And here is just a basic little thought. . since everything krasnov spews is niyad Yesterday #56

KNR and bookmarking. I cannot take much more today. niyad Yesterday #57

Ok, I've read all the parts, fairly convincing stuff...now... MiHale Yesterday #58

Oooo-Weee ! ProudToronto Yesterday #59

Everything just went a little too perfectly for Trump mvd Yesterday #60

I've thought this since Nov. 6 2024 4catsmom 21 hrs ago #63