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obnoxiousdrunk

(3,074 posts)

33. Cant wait for

Reply to liberalla (Original post)

Thu Jun 19, 2025, 08:52 PM

Jun 19

Part vii.

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musette_sf

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She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data [View all] liberalla Jun 19 OP

Trump's 'win' was a statistical improbability pfitz59 Jun 19 #1

not in multiple swing states and even in a few national polls Celerity Jun 19 #11

Polls were extraordinarily close. Many within the margin of error.... paleotn Jun 19 #22

Basically the entire country shifted red at the presidential level EdmondDantes_ Jun 19 #45

Not a false impression at all.... paleotn Jun 20 #62

That still shows that harris should have won at least two or three Tribetime Jun 19 #25

Not really fujiyamasan Jun 20 #64

I could accept Harris losing given the last-minute campaign, but valleyrogue Jun 20 #61

Kick SheltieLover Jun 19 #2

Our gut feelings match the real math. yellow dahlia Jun 19 #3

So all 88 swing counties going red, and winning all 7 swing states outside the recount margin? questionseverything Jun 19 #4

The assumptions made to come up with that figure are ridiculous Wiz Imp Jun 19 #14

Could you give us a couple of specific examples to help us sort this out? Thanks. TheRickles Jun 19 #15

Unless they show exactly how they calculated that probability-- and all the input data LymphocyteLover Jun 19 #20

The article at the link describes their calculations: if 88 counties all flipped in one direction TheRickles Jun 19 #31

You can't just look at those that flipped. Wiz Imp Jun 19 #37

But why didn't any counties flip in the other direction? That is the key question. TheRickles Jun 19 #39

Because 90% of counties across the country went more red in 2024 than in 2020 EdmondDantes_ Jun 19 #46

Thank you for providing an actual answer: 90% of counties went redder. TheRickles Jun 19 #47

Most areas went more for Trump than in 2020. Wiz Imp Jun 19 #49

OK thanks. But the 50-50 toss-up is a big assumption for every state LymphocyteLover Jun 19 #53

Zero evidence? Fiendish Thingy Jun 19 #18

Here's the thing - I am actually open to believing that the election wasn't 100% fair Wiz Imp Jun 19 #29

They use their names, the data they use is from government reports questionseverything Jun 19 #28

They use their names? This Will Hold is somebody's name? Wiz Imp Jun 19 #34

Denial is a powerful coping mechanism, and part of grieving a loss Fiendish Thingy Jun 19 #5

Just curious, are you an American citizen questionseverything Jun 19 #7

I'm an American citizen and I agree with them Wiz Imp Jun 19 #13

Dual citizen Fiendish Thingy Jun 19 #17

Where do you vote? questionseverything Jun 19 #24

Nanaimo BC. Nt Fiendish Thingy Jun 19 #27

I've gotta ask this question. bluestarone Jun 19 #6

They aren't "findings", they are theories Fiendish Thingy Jun 19 #32

Harris/Walz won Clouds Passing Jun 19 #8

You convinced me. Congratulations! What a great argument you present! Wiz Imp Jun 19 #38

I'm not a lawyer, never was a debator. I read the evidence. Clouds Passing Jun 19 #44

Thanx for posting this Botany Jun 19 #9

A lot of Democratic voters were unhappy with the way Biden was treated Bluestocking Jun 19 #10

Many did vote but Peter Thiel's Palantir was running a clean up operation that would hide any evidence of .. Botany Jun 19 #12

This message was self-deleted by its author fujiyamasan Jun 20 #65

This message was self-deleted by its author fujiyamasan Jun 20 #66

Unless someone includes how many full paper recounts were done in US, ... Festivito Jun 19 #16

I can't believe any of this if it's only from a substack source. There have to be other sources. The Marc Elias Group ancianita Jun 19 #19

Elias is a lawyer, not a computer technician questionseverything Jun 19 #30

His firm is also litigating 55 cases. chowder66 Jun 19 #41

Elias is an incredible player in this fight for democracy questionseverything Jun 19 #42

Indeed he is. chowder66 Jun 19 #50

Why are some people Hornedfrog2000 Jun 19 #21

Bookmark TY Cha Jun 19 #23

i'm not a math person but et tu Jun 19 #26

Eloon and T💩p told on themselves repeatedly. In public. OMGWTF Jun 20 #55

Cant wait for obnoxiousdrunk Jun 19 #33

Certainly worth pursuing. oasis Jun 19 #35

K n R Faux pas Jun 19 #36

If it's true that "everyone hates Ted Cruz," how does he stay in office? calimary Jun 19 #40

yeah... this "math" is trash.......... Takket Jun 19 #43

Kick musette_sf Jun 19 #48

Discrepancies between early/mail-in votes and day-of-election votes. Foolacious Jun 19 #51

Why this is important? Metaphorical Jun 19 #52

Quite simply, the polls were close anyway, but they were wrong. Statistically, that isn't that unlikely. Doodley Jun 20 #54

And here is just a basic little thought. . since everything krasnov spews is niyad Jun 20 #56

KNR and bookmarking. I cannot take much more today. niyad Jun 20 #57

Ok, I've read all the parts, fairly convincing stuff...now... MiHale Jun 20 #58

Oooo-Weee ! ProudToronto Jun 20 #59

Everything just went a little too perfectly for Trump mvd Jun 20 #60

I've thought this since Nov. 6 2024 4catsmom Jun 20 #63