Let's talk about Trump's Texas redistricting looking more and more like a dummymander.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's Texas redistricting looking more and more like a dummymander.

Most people know the backstory by now, but here's a real quick recap. Trump realized his policies were unpopular and he didn't want to lose seats in the House, which normally happens to the president's party during midterms. So rather than letting voters pick their representatives, he wanted to let the politicians pick their voters and push Texas to redistrict to get more seats that lean toward Republicans. That kicked off what turned into a nationwide redistricting battle.

When that was going on, we talked at length about how Republicans might not actually be using the right math and noted how they appeared to be counting on maintaining the support of the Latino community even though all indications were, they were quickly losing it. As special elections occurred and Democrats flipped seat after seat, the party became more confident that Trump had led Republicans down a road of self-defeat.

Now, the Texas primaries have occurred in the newly redrawn districts. And well, out of the five seats, Republicans redrew in their favor, Democratic primary turnout exceeded Republican turnout in all of them. That's another indicator that Republicans might have dummymandered, but it isn't foolproof because the Democratic Party would have to keep the energy at that level.

Richard Gonzalez, who is the chair of the Hidalgo County Democratic Party, said, "This is just the official rebuke of the Trump administration and the Republican Party.”

When you dig down into the data, it looks like two of the redrawn seats are likely to swing Republican. Two are likely to be held by the Democrats, and one is kind of a tossup. So, by the current trend, Republicans will only get two or three of the five they wanted. Plus, Democrats think they can actually flip two seats that are currently held by Republicans.

If Democrats hold the toss up and actually get the two they're trying to flip along with the two they're expected to retain, it turns the entire Texas redistricting into a wash. But the real bottom line here is that there is almost no way based on the current data and trends for the Republican party to actually pick up the five seats they set out to get, which is definitely something to really think about because this was where it all started. If Texas hadn't moved on this, other states wouldn't have engaged in redistricting.

Trump's move to try to pick the voters may end up costing him seats in the House rather than preserving them. We're still a long way from the election, but the likelihood of a Trump inspired dummymander continues to increase with every bit of information that comes out.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. Texas Redistricting-As a voting rights volunteer, I was amused to learn a new term "dummymander"

I have been volunteering on voting rights/voter protection since 2004 when I went to Florida as part of the Kerry Edwards voter protection team. I have testified before committees of both the Texas House and Senate on gerrymandered districts. Part of my testimony was used in a prior lawsuit that unfortunately failed. Texas is heavily gerrymandered. My congressional district went from a R+1 to a R+21 as part of the last gerrymander. trump wants Ohio and Texas to re-gerrymander their districts to help in the midterms. I was amused to see that these efforts run a risk of failing

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/11/texas-redistricting-00448145

But in Texas, Republicans are in danger of creating a so-called dummymander, whereby an attempt to draw more seats for one party accidentally benefits the other. Texas’ congressional map already heavily favors the GOP, so any changes to further benefit the party would have to walk a careful line. Adding Republican voters to blue districts to reduce Democrats’ margins means taking those same voters out of the red districts where they reside. The result is more competitive districts across the board — ones Democrats hope to take advantage of as they harness anti-Trump energy in the midterms.

“They are playing a little bit of roulette with these maps,” said Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). “In a wave election like what we have a potential opportunity for in ‘26 I think it makes these Republicans very vulnerable.”

Texas has 38 House seats, with 25 held by Republicans. Members of the state’s Democratic delegation huddled with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the redistricting talk ramped up, with follow-up meetings planned.

Jeffries warned in a statement Wednesday that an aggressive map could “result in making several incumbent House Republicans vulnerable to fierce general election challenges.”

“Republicans are cutting off their nose to spite their face,” he added.....

Democrats are almost certain to sue over whatever new maps are created in both Ohio and Texas, said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

“I imagine we will have a lot to say about the map they create and the legalities of it,” he said Thursday.

On top of everything else, there is a trial going on with respect to the Texas maps that these efforts may affect.

This will be fun to watch