Let's talk about Trump blaming the GDP on democrats.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump blaming the GDP on Democrats.

I'm old enough to remember when the Trump administration laid claim to the economy in an incredibly public and less than ideal moment. The Dow is over 50,000. Do you remember that? I know it's been a long time. In the video titled, "Let's talk about what about the Dow," I said that while the Trump administration was laying claim to the economy today, a day would come when they were desperately trying to say it's not his market. While I knew that day would come, I didn't know it would only be a week away because that day was yesterday.

The Trump administration line was predictable and simple. It's the fault of the Democrats. That's right. The party in control of both chambers of Congress and the presidency is blaming the other party. The logic says that last year's dismal GDP was because of the exceptionally bad fourth quarter reading of 1.4% which of course is the fault of the Democrats because of the government shutdown. I guess they haven't figured out how to pin the meager job growth on the Democrats yet.

The White House actually put out a press release trying to push the blame to the Democratic party that in a very presidential style was titled Trump was right about everything. US Treasury Secretary and retired soybean man Scott Bessent was on Fox and said “it was this longest shutdown in history that caused the fourth quarter to crash.” He also said he thought the GDP would be one or two percent higher if it weren't for the shutdown. That's odd because in December after the shutdown when he was on Face the Nation, he said, "We're going to finish the year despite the shutdown with 3%."

That obviously didn't happen. Not even close. To be clear, the shutdown was not the sole reason for the downturn. There were multiple reasons. But I'll play their silly little game. The shutdown caused 2% to come off the GDP according to Bessent. Fine. The shutdown was over Republicans refusing to extend the ACA tax credits. This jacked up prices or caused millions of Americans to lose their health insurance. Republicans kicking the working class in the teeth and yanking health care away by removing the ACA tax credits saves the government about $30 billion in 2026.

If Bessent's math is right and the GDP would have been 2% higher without the shutdown, it would have meant more money in the economy. The math says about $140 to $150 billion more dollars in the economy. Republicans were so interested in punishing the working class and taking away the health care of the commoners, they kept the government shut down and yanked $150 billion out of the economy so they could save an estimated $30 billion in spending.

Now, that's not an apples-to-apples comparison. One is GDP, one is government spending. But the Treasury Department, which is Bessent's department, says that the US gets about 17% of the GDP in tax revenue. $150 billion in extra GDP means an additional $25.5 billion in tax revenue. They threw all those people off and jacked up prices for $4 billion. That's a rounding error in the federal budget.

The video mentioned about the Dow goes over the fact that the economy is not on stable footing and that the Dow isn't a remotely accurate measurement of the state of the economy, especially when it's wildly overvalued. Trump is telling you the economy is great one day and then saying it's bad and it's the Democrat's fault the next. That's going to make for an interesting midterm and state of the union, which I'll be watching so you don't have to.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.