Let's talk about Trump's allies trying to stop his Iran war.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's allies trying to stop his Iran war.

As the massive US buildup in the region continues and the victory conditions for any potential engagement remain ill-defined, countries that have been pretty receptive to Trump are trying to stop him from moving forward with his concepts of a plan to hit Iran. It's a real problem for Trump because he's postured so much. He's going to have a hard time backing down without appearing very weak.

Here's a question that highlights one of the more interesting developments. “I've got a question about what's happening in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman, and Turkey have been trying to stop Trump's attack on Iran. I don't understand why Saudi Arabia would want to stop it. They're kind of Iran's enemy, right? So, wouldn't it be beneficial for them and be in their interests to see the US hit Iran? Is there something I'm missing? Is this a religion thing or is this something I don't understand?

Countries don't have friends, they have interests. If you've been watching a while, you've heard that a few times. The opposite is true as well. Countries don't have enemies. They have interests as well. Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are the predominant forces in the region. They all have less than great relations. But the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel is the least bad. And in no small part, that's because they both view Iran as their opponent.

What happens to that relationship if Iran is knocked out of the regional power game? It's also worth remembering that for countries that actually exist near where the fighting would happen, the status quo is normally better than war.

Here in the US, we're insulated from that belief because we don't see war on our soil, but Saudi Arabia knows how quickly this could spin out of control and how quickly this could turn into a regional war. With Trump signaling he wants to avoid ground troops, the allied countries there, know he'll drop them faster than he dropped the Kurds if it becomes a political liability. Basically, Trump is viewed in the Middle East as the loudmouth who will start the fight and then run away, leaving them to deal with the brawl.

Trump's elective conflict, that at this point seems primarily about his ego, could have devastating effects for countries in the region and the economy of that region. They'd probably like to avoid having their cities hit because Trump's unpopular at home. Even further, it's important to remember that in many ways, the presence of Iran acts as a stabilizing force in Saudi Arabia. It provides a focal point to unite against. There's also probably a fear in Saudi Arabia that if Iran was to fall and somehow it ends up being a more liberal country in the aftermath, it might increase the desire of their own citizens to seek reform or change in the kingdom.

The potential downstream effects from Trump's little adventure here are immense. And let's be honest, this administration isn't considering what comes next because they never do.

Saudi Arabia opposes Iran because it's in their interests. They also oppose Trump sparking a regional conflict for a midterm talking point because it's in their interests. It's foreign policy. It's about power and in this case stability.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[applegrove]

1. Saudi Arabia, that sells oil, doesn't want to compete

with a free and democratic Iran or an authoritarian Iran that has no sanctions on its oil anymore. That is my guess.