Let's talk about Trump admitting Iran strikes failed.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump admitting Iran strikes failed.

Trump is currently weighing and talking up the idea of a military campaign in Iran because of the nuclear program. Hey. Hey, I've seen this one. I've seen this one. This is a classic, right? It's weird, right? I'm totally confused by that development because I seem to remember it being completely obliterated about 6 months ago. I feel like no matter how much every intelligence assessment, foreign policy expert, ordnance specialist, or experts on Iran said their program wasn't obliterated. Trump and those he tricked insisted it was.

On June 25th, the White House released a statement saying, "Iran's nuclear facilities have been obliterated, and suggestions otherwise are fake news." But now Trump is threatening another military campaign.

So, let's backtrack to get the timeline. Trump said no nukes. Then he struck Iran's underground facilities. He claimed Iran's nuclear capability was obliterated and set back years despite assessments saying only months. Then only months later, he started negotiations with Iran over their totally obliterated nuclear program and ballistic missile production. Those negotiations failed. So now Trump is talking about another strike.

However, there is some indication that this time Trump is considering a much wider strike that could potentially target Iranian leadership. That tells observers that Trump really didn't learn much from the less than ideal outcome to his Venezuela operation. That's also apparent from his social media posts that actually make it seem like the operation that left almost the entirety of the Maduro government intact was a success.

While the government there has theoretically opened to US oil interests, oil companies don't want to go there and the additional production will hurt US business and benefit Venezuela while encouraging other countries in the region to align closer with China.

Trump made it clear during the recent wave of protests that he wants to see regime change in Iran when he posted, "Iranian patriots, keep protesting. Take over your institutions. Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price.”

That price would only be paid if the current government was no longer in power. Regime change is the goal. However, strikes against leadership would likely simply activate Iran's continuity of government plans, and Trump might end up with somebody even more hardline in power. Aside from that, Iran's Mid-East allies are signaling escalation and a potential regional war if the US attacks. US allies in the region are also warning that his actions might spark a regional war.

It's important to understand that the US isn't properly positioned for any follow-up to air strikes. Iran's population, size, terrain, and doctrine would make any ground occupation unworkable. This is something that we know, they know, our allies know, and their allies know. Iran's leadership, including those who are next in line for top spots, would know that Iran has to absorb the hits, and then it could respond.

The risks of targeting the leadership in Iran without a real follow-up plan are far greater than Venezuela. The results could spill into a regional conflict and given some of Trump's recent insults to our Western allies, I seriously doubt the US can count on the NATO backup we normally have in the Middle East. But I guess that doesn't matter, you know, since they stay a little back, a little off the front lines, right?

Anyway, it's just a thought. You all have a good day.