NYT: How Much Snow Will Fall Where You Live?

[Dennis Donovan]

NYT - How Much Snow Will Fall Where You Live?

By Aatish Bhatia, Josh Katz, Margot Sanger-Katz and Samuel Jacoby
Updated Jan. 5, 2025 at 1:07 PM ET

There’s a reason the snowfall prediction on your weather map often misses: It represents just a fraction of the possible outcomes contained within official forecasts.

Most weather maps show you only the center of the distribution of snowfall estimates. Search below to see the full range of possibilities for your community over the next few days.

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The range can be wide. That’s because predicting snow remains tricky, especially several days out, said Alex Lamers, a warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service.

Getting a snowfall total right requires predicting the path of a storm correctly, estimating the amount of precipitation and understanding additional factors — like the temperature high in the atmosphere, or wind speeds close to the ground — that can influence the snow’s density.


(Note: Map is interactive at link)

The map above shows the typical snowfall forecast — at the center of possible estimates from the National Weather Service. For some storms, that estimate is highly predictive. But for others, it can represent less than 50 percent of potential snowfall totals.

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[bottomofthehill]

1. 8-10 inches

[Dennis Donovan]

2. I'm in the middle of the Finger Lakes in NY - we're supposed to get an inch or less...

We're in a unique area for NY. We're too far east and south of Lakes Erie and Ontario, so we never get lake effect snow. And we're too far west for Nor'easters so we miss the coastal snow storms that wallop the eastern part of NY and all of New England.

[Lifeafter70]

3. Lived outside of Rochester on the late 80's

Moved there from California. Was surprised that it got little to no snow.
It was cold and windy. Canidaguia NY