Geoffrey Hinton upgrades the possibilty of AI causing our extinction in 30 years

[mdbl]

The British-Canadian computer scientist often touted as a “godfather” of artificial intelligence has shortened the odds of AI wiping out humanity over the next three decades, warning the pace of change in the technology is “much faster” than expected.

Prof Geoffrey Hinton, who this year was awarded the Nobel prize in physics for his work in AI, said there was a “10 to 20” per cent chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades. Previously Hinton had said there was a 10% chance of the technology triggering a catastrophic outcome for humanity.

Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if he had changed his analysis of a potential AI apocalypse and the one in 10 chance of it happening, he said: “Not really, 10 to 20 [per cent].”

Hinton’s estimate prompted Today’s guest editor, the former chancellor Sajid Javid, to say “you’re going up”, to which Hinton replied: “If anything. You see, we’ve never had to deal with things more intelligent than ourselves before.”

Entire article:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/27/godfather-of-ai-raises-odds-of-the-technology-wiping-out-humanity-over-next-30-years

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To me the real problem is we have too many greedy or stupid people making the decisions that affect us all.

[Srkdqltr]

1. How will it wipe out humanity? Or 10% or 20%. Which is different from all.

Which 10 or 20%? It's easy to say this stuff with no specifics.

[Jim__]

3. A couple of thoughts.

From wikipedia

...

As AI technology democratizes, it may become easier to engineer more contagious and lethal pathogens. This could enable people with limited skills in synthetic biology to engage in bioterrorism. Dual-use technology that is useful for medicine could be repurposed to create weapons.[56]

For example, in 2022, scientists modified an AI system originally intended for generating non-toxic, therapeutic molecules with the purpose of creating new drugs. The researchers adjusted the system so that toxicity is rewarded rather than penalized. This simple change enabled the AI system to create, in six hours, 40,000 candidate molecules for chemical warfare, including known and novel molecules.[56][61]

...

You could also think about lethal autonomous weapons

If the actions of such AI systems themselves don't directly wipe out humanity, they could cause international incidents that escalate into war.

[Orrex]

11. 10% to 20% chance of wiping us out entirely

Not “a chance of wiping out 10% to 20% of us.”

If this starts to happen, Congress will act fast to shield itself from consequences, and their next move will be to guarantee that student loans must still be paid. Next they’ll protect billionaires’ assets and holdings.

[The Madcap]

2. Maybe it will be by

promoting stupidity. Based on what I've seen so far, it doesn't appear to be very good at anything other than regurgitating old info and drawing hands with six fingers. I don't see it as taking over so much as dumbing us down into oblivion.

[KPN]

12. Have you googled anything lately? AI seems pretty remarkable on Google. Not saying I like

it -- but it's efficient, useful and seems to be accurate.

[The Madcap]

15. I don't have Google set up

to deliberately provide an AI response. Nor do I have Chat-GPT set up on my desktop. Maybe that's the issue. Microsoft CoPilot AI is pretty bad, but I don't really use it that much. Every time I try to get it to do anything, it always seems to come back with some kind of response like "I can't do that" or "That's not appropriate." It's very much trying not to offend anyone or anything in the slightest. Not good for funny memes.

[KPN]

16. I didn't set it up either. Not sure how it just started appearing as the first on the list whenever I

Google anything, but it does -- both on my PC (Windows 10) and iPhone. I have actually found it useful and efficient and it's just as fast as searches had been prior. The AI response is drawn from other links that appear below it it seems, and then it suggests a few videos whenever it's a "how to" search. I've probably used it 10 times in the past couple weeks and am finding I review the AI response before anything else now, but on "how tos" I still lookat other links to verify./ So far, so good.

[essaynnc]

4. I wonder if....

AI has Asimov's 3 laws of robotics totally ingrained???? No harm to humans, no harm to itself, etc.

[Srkdqltr]

5. Im glad I'm old

[vanamonde]

6. Me too

[anciano]

7. Likewise.

[keithbvadu2]

8. Skynet is thinking.

[Ray Bruns]

9. I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords and am ready to sell out the human race.

[Ferrets are Cool]

10. The entire story behind Horizon: Zero Dawn

The story of how Ted Faro (Elon Musk) destroys all life on the planet for greed.

[2naSalit]

13. Probably...

As long as they don't completely destroy the biosphere first.

[KPN]

14. Seems to me as related to humans, AI will have the same flaws as humans.

How could it be otherwise? So the questions are: how well will humanity protect itself? And in that context, how do we define "well" -- what does it look like?

Hope the past 4 to 5 decades aren't indicative.

[Javaman]

17. In 30 years I doubt I'll be here.

I just have to hang on to my current job for another 6 years before till I retire and it's replaced by an AI.

it will be, no doubt in my mind.