China Industry Collapsing - Joe Blogs

[TexasTowelie]

The official figures published by China's National Bureau of Statistics show that China’s economy is still growing strongly and any slowdown is considered to be temporary. However a very different picture is starting to emerge.

In this video, I break down the latest data showing that China’s industrial profits have fallen by around 13% year-on-year, one of the sharpest declines in years. For an economy built on manufacturing and industry, that’s a major red flag.

We then look at what’s been happening to producer prices, which have now been falling for roughly three years. Persistent producer price deflation is a clear sign of overcapacity, weak demand, and intense pressure on company margins.

I also examine domestic demand, using retail sales data to show how consumer spending has softened over the past 12 months, before turning to exports, which are also losing momentum as global demand weakens and supply chains continue to diversify away from China.

Finally, I look at new research from the Rhodium Group, an independent economic research firm founded in 2008, which argues that China’s official growth figures have likely been overstated for several years. According to their analysis, China’s true growth rate may be closer to around 3%, with growth in 2026 potentially slowing further to between 1% and 2.5%.

Taken together, the data suggests China isn’t just experiencing a short-term slowdown — it’s going through a painful economic right-sizing that could have major implications for global markets, trade, and investment.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro
2:15 INDUSTRIAL PROFITS
4:51 PRODUCER PRICES
7:06 RETAIL SALES
9:41 EXPORTS
10:50 GDP
12:30 RHODIUM
16:02 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION