China's New Virus Outbreak - What We Know So Far; US-China Relations: Hacking - China Update

[TexasTowelie]

00:00 Introduction
00:11 China’s New Viral Outbreak: An Update
05:58 US-China: US Treasury Hack

[Historic NY]

1. We are on the uptake with respiratory and flu here also.

I'm still getting over the respiratory thing, I got on Dec 7th.

[GreatGazoo]

2. I like his measured take

and sourcing of multiple anecdotes.

I was sick for the first time in five years right before Thanksgiving. Fever, chills, fatigue. Treated it, beat it in 3 days and now feel better than I have in two years. Not sure why or even if treating the flu cleaned out something else.

[hlthe2b]

3. Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) is not new. It circulates in the US and elsewhere in winter at same time as RSV, FLU

and COVID-19 (and Mycoplasma pneumonia--as well as common cold variants, especially Adenoviruses).

Whether a more virulent "strain" might be on the uptick in China is unclear, but those suggesting this is a new virus need to study virology a bit more. It was specifically identified in 2001 by the Dutch, but serology samples show antibodies to it in humans dating to the 1950s. As with many respiratory viruses (e.g., RSV) it is generally more a threat in young children.

Honestly, we need to focus on H5N1 (avian flu) which is rapidly spreading from dairy farm to dairy farm and potentially mutating to infect other species--including most domestic and wild cats in zoos. Right now, spread to humans has been "recoverable" albeit with significant symptoms-- and given the most uninsured population (mostly immigrants or low wage agricultural workers) are most at risk and do not receive the available (albeit short-supplied) vaccine stocks are providing a damnable opportunity for it to evolve, spread, and become a major threat.

[xocetaceans]

4. So, is this guy another hack reporter pushing the "flat-earth" virology of the lab leak hypothesis at 4:47 in the video?

Should his reporting even be taken seriously? Has he even bothered to check on what data is out there? talked with actual virologists?

How about the following suggestion: maybe...Martians planted the virus as revenge for the plot of War of the Worlds too? Some people just wrote that statement after all, so maybe he should report that with a deadpan affect and an air of seriousness. Also, some people think the Earth is flat.

His reporting might better belong in a hybrid group forum of foreign affairs and science fiction or MAGA conspiracy theories since his other source for his lab leak hypothesis is a (GOP/MAGA-led) US government report. Which congressional MAGA nutjobs are behind that? Johnson? Jordan? Massie? Keep in mind that that group is likely going to fall in behind RFK, Jr. and probably chase down every vaccine-related rabbit hole he might consider to be "profitably" exploitable. What is Kennedy after all other than merely a health grifter at this point? He has no knowledge of virology, yet unabashedly is anti-vax. His book on Fauci is a demonstrable piece of trash.

Anyway, this reporter's "credibility" might...ought to be reconsidered given his willingness to parrot such a claims that the lab leak hypothesis is "plausible" and is "the likely explanation".

Find the data, report on the data, and if there is no time of staff for that, maybe stories just to fill time should not be produced.

How many people died as a result of stupid takes on virology caused by rabbit-hole reporting? Far too many.

[TexasTowelie]

6. Tony is not a hack reporter.

Tony was on the diplomatic team from New Zealand that was selected to serve in China, has a legal degree, obtained an advanced degree in China, and is still living there. He faces political oppression imprisonment from the CCP by producing his content so I disagree with your characterization of Tony as a hack reporter.

As far as virology is concerned, Tony gave information about the two most likely origins of COVID, but he also identified the likely origins as theories. However, as far as COVID is concerned it boils down to this---either the virus evolved or it was engineered. I tend to lean towards a lab leak as the cause based upon reports by other sources about the safety standards of the lab.

Considering the difficulty of obtaining information from China, I doubt that many, if any, virologists in China are going to risk their careers doing interviews that aren't approved by the CCP. The lack of information from that group is irrelevant due that risk factor.

[xocetaceans]

7. Check the data on your "engineered virus" statement. You don't really know that any better than he does. n/t

[TexasTowelie]

8. Really?

What is the third option to the virus either evolving or being engineered? Don't tell me to check data without providing a source since you seem to be knowledgeable about what is happening.

[xocetaceans]

9. My statement is not one of "either...or". My point is you have no data of "yours" it came from a lab.

Also, being a possibility or being a plausibility is vastly different than either being most likely so or being most probably so. If you don't know about the early strains and their distribution in Wuhan, then you don't have the data that you need to have in order to understand the problem. So, my statement presumed that you had something to base your assumptions/understanding on. Clearly, you don't: otherwise, I am sure that you would not be making such statements and posting sources that clearly don't have much of a clue on the origin of the virus or have a responsible treatment of that question given what is known.

Following is a source discussion that you might consider. There are several discussions linked to this one as well, but this one is effectively the summary. If you are not familiar with microbiology, the terminology might be a bit difficult to follow when they are specific, but it is not at the level of biochemistry, so it should not be impossible to understand if it is actually of interest. It would be misleading for me to say that it would be no problem to understand the material if you don't have any background in biological sciences: it is not trivial material, but it is not at too high a level either. They reference many of the related episodes at the beginning of this video:

&ab_channel=MicrobeTV

[TexasTowelie]

10. Thanks for providing a link, but I'm not going to watch a 55 minute video from a virology class lecture.

Since the list of videos on their playlist are exceedingly long I won't subscribe because I doubt that the majority of DU members will watch. The audience at DU is the general public with a liberal bias rather than the much narrower group who are interested in virology.

My point when I said that the virus either evolved or engineered should more accurately be stated that the virus is a result of natural processes or it was artificially manipulated. If the title of the video you provided is accurate, then it supports the theory that the virus is a product of nature rather than grown in a lab.

Anyway, I have my own doubts about what may be in the video since I don't see where the content providers would be obtaining relevant contemporary data from any source in China except for maybe WHO which has credibility issues too.

Tony is not a virologist, he normally concentrates on economic policy, financial news, and political developments. Throughout the video he provides caveats about his sources and he clearly states when his observations are anecdotal. However, while Tony is not an expert on viruses, he is not going to ignore a current event. Calling him a hack reporter when he clearly has the skills to succeed in a variety of careers is unwarranted.

[TexasTowelie]

11. Reading your comment again, I wanted to add one other thing.

I have a BS degree in math and a minor in chemistry. While I only had general biology in college, I did take biochemistry and I have enough personal medical issues that it would be erroneous to guess that I have no knowledge of the biological sciences.

[xocetaceans]

12. I can only guess your background absent such extending comments. There is no intent to demean it. This is not a...

competition of qualifications. Regardless, given the background you stated, you should have mostly no problem at all if any following what they are discussing re: epitopes, genomes, etc. It mostly requires understanding ideas related to viruses and their genomes at a schematic level, not at the level of their biochemical structure, though that is hinted at on occasion. (I only mention biochemistry in this manner because, though it is important to why things are the way they are, its inclusion might serve to obscure the over-arching discussion of what is happening at a more coarse-grained conceptual scale. It is not intended as a taunt. The more important structures for the purposes of their discussion are at the level of the virus and its genome.)

Regarding the earlier comment you made on contemporary data from China: what sort of current data are you suggesting that they obtain and what sort of sources would be sufficiently credible? Unless it is being suggested that some sort of Chinese whistleblower will come forth with a set of government documents outlining a direct sequence of events leading to the outbreak, it is hard to imagine what would be being sought. The data to which I am referring was collected in situ in Wuhan roughly five years ago. There is no contemporary form of that data and cannot be. So, I have no idea what sort of data you might wish to be collected.

I still highly recommend that you watch the linked video if you want to understand the state of the situation. Keep in mind how many died as a result of misinformed takes on vaccinology and virology. I would suggest that it is too important an issue to discard.

Lastly, regarding a comment on the most recent briefing on China (the one from 1/7/25): it is not strictly true that no vaccines have been "developed" for hMPV. (Also, I think you might have inadvertently fused RSV and hMPV into "RMPV" in your comment.) Sanofi Pasteur is working on one that is to be in testing:

Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immune Response of an Investigational Vaccine for the Prevention of RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) and (hMPV) Human Metapneumovirus Infection in Participants Aged 60 to 75 Years

Study Overview

Brief Summary
VAV00039 is a first-in-human (FiH) study to assess the safety and immunogenicity (in adult participants aged 60-75 years) after a single injection of different dose formulations of an RSV/hMPV vaccine candidate and RSV vaccine.

Detailed Description
The duration of participation will be approximately 6 months for each participant.

Official Title
A Phase 1, Randomized, Modified Double-blind, Multi-center, Parallel Group, Multi-arm Study to Investigate the Safety and Immunogenicity of an RSV/hMPV Vaccine Candidate in Adult Participants Aged 60 to 75 Years

...

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06583031?term=hMPV&rank=1

So, yes, there are no currently approved vaccines for hMPV as far as I know, but there is, at least, one candidate that has been developed and is to be in testing later this year.

If you ever want to check on what is being investigated or what is to be investigated, the US government clinical trials website is (at present anyway) a good source: https://clinicaltrials.gov/.

We'll have to see if that survives the Trump Administration.

[TexasTowelie]

13. You are correct that I fused HMPV and RSV together--it looked odd when I was typing it but I didn't check my work.

Thanks for the link to the clinical trials site. I'm turning 60 in June so I may be a candidate for some of the study groups in the future, particularly since I'm also diabetic.

I believe that Tony has good intentions with his reporting, but he doesn't have expertise in virology and admits it. Tony's posts are something that I listen to while completing other tasks and I'm usually listening in a social or political context more than a scientific context. Since virology isn't my area of expertise I generally accepted the comments without further questioning until our discussion.

I also apologize for my aggressive responses upthread. I'm dealing with my brother's hostile MAGA behavior since the election and it reached another crescendo over the weekend. Some of that aggression spilled over into my posts. Having the link to the link to the video might be useful though in the future. My brother is a respiratory therapist spreading the conspiracy theories about the vaccine (my brother is more virulent than the actual virus).

[Easterncedar]

5. I like this guy

He does seem to be good at providing balance and context. He is giving the information "with a huge grain of salt". Thanks for posting, TexasTowelie.