Have we really reached 'peak car'?

[marmar]

Have we really reached 'peak car'?
Vehicle traffic grew at a fearsome rate worldwide for decades … until 2007. Then came the perfect storm of an economic collapse, a digital revolution and major changes to urban lifestyles. But is this just a blip?


A funny thing happened on the way to Carmageddon: the predicted traffic failed to show up. As engineers continued to forecast traffic growth in line with historic averages – up, up and yet farther up, to an eventual “carpocalypse” – actual traffic not only fell short of projections, in many places it just plain fell. A growing number of researchers and commentators are now suggesting that we’ve reached “peak car”, the point at which traffic growth stops, and potentially even falls on a per capita basis.

Total vehicles miles travelled (VMT) has been outpacing population and jobs for decades, across industrialised countries. For example, check out the US from 1960 to 2012:

http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1429804188288/us_population_v_jobs.svg

Vehicle traffic grew at a fearsome rate, as any commuter can attest ... up until 2007. Then traffic not only plateaued, it fell. Similar trends are evident in the UK and other developed countries. Phil Goodwin at UCL has compiled statistics for various countries into the following chart:

http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1429805064105/passenger_kilometres.svg

The pattern is clear. The only uncertainties are about what caused it, and whether it will continue into the future.

And, as it turns out, there are fundamental disagreements on those points. ....................(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/apr/30/have-we-really-reached-peak-car