The AI boom is over -- here's your bubble survival guide

[bucolic_frolic]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-boom-over-bubble-survival-113100533.html

The debate shouldn’t be whether the AI bubble will pop — that’s already happening. Not in some dramatic, market-crushing way that will dominate headlines, but through a slow-motion deflation that’s quietly reshaping the entire landscape. The casualties are already piling up: startup shutdowns surged in 2024; in 2025, 95% of enterprise AI pilots failed to deliver measurable P&L impact within six months of launch; and down rounds this year hit a decade high at 15.9% of all venture deals.

Many companies that scream the loudest about the bubble are either exaggerating the threat or fundamentally misunderstanding what’s actually unfolding. This isn’t the 2000 dot-com collapse all over again. It’s far more interesting and far more profitable if you know where to look. I’ve identified three distinct market tiers facing radically different fates:

Tier 1: The hyperscalers (Microsoft MSFT, Alphabet GOOGL GOOG, Amazon.com AMZN, Meta Platforms META, Apple AAPL) are essentially unassailable. Their estimated $320 billion to $340 billion in 2025 capex spending — largely for AI and cloud infrastructure — comes from operating cash flow generated by their core businesses. They can weather extended periods of disappointing AI returns because their core businesses print money.
____________________
MUCH more at the link, this is a very deep dive into AI and the sectors that feed AI, and even gets involved in the timing for '26 & '27.

[ThreeNoSeep]

1. The linked article reads like AI slop

"It's not this...it's this!" Em dashes, subheadings, etc.
Just sayin'.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. You must be reading a different article. /nt

[ThreeNoSeep]

3. Nope. I read the article you linked

This article displays sentence patterns and structure like ChatGPT or Claude. I could be wrong, of course.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. But if you read it, you'd understand it. /nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Hey! I use em-dashes too! (excuse my downtime while I replace my rack 3A slot 6.) . . . . nt

[GreatGazoo]

6. headline calls it a bubble

body of the article says 'buy the dip'

Recommends Adobe and other turkeys. Figma is going to eat Adobe's lunch. Adobe peaked two years ago at $630 and your clown is saying 'wait for the dip" (!) and buy it. It's $335 right now, down 24% YTD. No thanks.

You know who loved Figma's software and business model three years ago?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figma#Attempted_acquisition_by_Adobe