"Dow 50,000" Sound Nice. Until Justin Wolfers Shows You That U.S. Markets Are Coming 21st Out of 23. - Justin Wolfers

[Rhiannon12866]

What does “Dow 50,000” actually tell you—anything about the economy, or just that a number got bigger?

Dow 50,000 is a milestone, not a measurement. The level of the Dow is basically arbitrary: it’s a committee-picked set of 30 blue-chip companies, and it’s not “the economy.” So if someone wants to turn the stock market into a political report card, the only honest question is: compared to what?

Using the standard apples-to-apples benchmark for international comparisons (the MSCI Total Return Index, which includes dividends), U.S. stocks are up about 16% since the start of Trump’s second presidency. The rest of the world is up nearly 38%. Put differently: if there were a “Rest of World Dow” starting at the same level, the celebration wouldn’t be Dow 50,000—it would be Dow 60,000.

And that gap isn’t abstract. On a $43,488 investment, the difference between 16% and 38% is roughly $10,000. That’s the kind of “missing money” that matters for real retirement accounts, college savings, and long-run wealth.

The stakes are bigger than one headline. Markets price the future—and they tend to dislike uncertainty, disruption, and instability in rules and institutions. If the U.S. is serving up more uncertainty than peer countries, investors may simply be willing to pay less for assets tied to America’s future. - 02/14/2026.

Topics covered:
Why the Dow’s level (50,000) is a milestone, not a real economic measure
How the Dow is constructed—and what it leaves out
Why the stock market is not the same as “the economy”
How to compare markets properly with the MSCI Total Return Index
Why “total return” (including dividends) changes the story
How the U.S. (16%) stacks up against the world ex-U.S. (38%)
The “Rest of World Dow” thought experiment (50k vs 60k)
What the performance gap means for a typical investor in dollars
Why comparing to peer economies (G7) is a fairer benchmark
Where the U.S. ranks among developed markets (21st out of 23)
Why markets tend to hate uncertainty and disruption
The broader habit: always ask “Compared to what?”

Contents:
00:00 Dow 50,000—and the economist’s annoying question
01:10 What the Dow actually is (and isn’t)
03:05 The right comparison: U.S. vs rest of world (MSCI total return)
05:05 Turning percentages into the missing “Dow 60,000” headline
06:15 Making it personal: where the “missing $10k” comes from
07:20 Comparing the U.S. to G7 peers—and the 21st-of-23 ranking
08:20 Why markets may be docking the U.S.: uncertainty and institutions
09:20 The rule for every headline number: “Compared to what?”

🎯 Key takeaway: Big numbers aren’t evidence—context is the evidence.

[TheFarseer]

1. I keep wondering why the markets are up

Is it mostly AI? Is it just stock buybacks and the extremely wealthy having so much money, they can’t possibly do anything with it but dump it in the market? Is there just less and less stock available because of mergers and the scarcity necessitates that prices go up? Does anyone have any insight?

[sanatanadharma]

2. The DOW is capitalist approved inflation

Inflation is general considered bad; rising prices and inflation are said to be problematic
Why then is inflation of stock prices not problematic?

A DOW of 50,000 is a clear sign of inflation unless the entire economy of everyone is booming, and it is not.
The stock market today is a Ponzi scheme where true value is disconnected from the inflated costs of buying stocks.

[Trueblue Texan]

3. From what I've read...

Stock market is doing so well because AI is like a Ponzi scheme right now.

[progree]

4. Gen Z, locked out of home buying, puts its money in the market, 2/15/26, Wall St. Journal via MSN (no paywall,

no gimmicks like "gimme your email first" ) at this MSN-hosted article.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/gen-z-locked-out-of-home-buying-puts-its-money-in-the-market/ar-AA1Wn5k1

Some points on the article

It doesn't include 401k money

Their example assumes the renter gets 10% average annual return on money invested in the stock market over the next 30 years, which would result in astronomical valuations (P/E ratios and price-to-book ratio, and the likes).

The share of people 25 to 39 years old making annual transfers to investment accounts more than tripled between 2013 and 2023 to 14.4 percent, outpacing increases for those 40 and over, according to data from the JPMorgan Chase Institute. The share of 26-year-olds who transferred funds to investment accounts since turning 22 shot up from 8% in 2015 to 40% as of May 2025. The numbers don’t include people investing in 401(k)s.

. . .

The share of young people in the housing market has plummeted since the turn of the century. Americans ages 18 to 39 made up 51% of home buyers in 1999, but only 44% in 2025, according to a Redfin analysis of census data.

The rate of ownership in that age range fell the most around 2012 when home prices started going up, “and homeownership started getting less and less affordable each year,” Redfin economist Daryl Fairweather said.

The overall homeownership rate for Gen Zers ages 19 to 28 ticked up 1 percentage point between 2024 and 2025, to 27.1%, according to Redfin, likely because of a boom in condo availability.

Anyway, a perspective on one factor causing the stock market to surge.