Who is going to be the winner of the 2024 MD US Senate Democratic Primary if Cardin retires and the
The Democratic candidates are Alsobrooks and Trone?
If we include Raskin and/or Sarbanes?
If Sarbanes decides to run, he is the clear frontrunner due to high name recognition and congressional experience. Sarbanes and his father Paul have represented the state of MD in the US House and US Senate since 1971(52 years). John has served in the US House since 2007.
Sarbanes will carry all of the counties in Greater Baltimore(except Baltimore city),Eastern Shore and the Calvert and St Mary’s county portion of the Southern MD Area in the Democratic Primary.
Raskin will carry Montgomery County.
Alsobrooks will carry Prince George’s County,Charles County, and Baltimore City. The 3 areas in MD that have a majority/plurality of the African American population.
Trone will carry Western MD and Frederick County.
If Sarbanes and Raskin don’t run,
Alsobrooks will carry
Baltimore City
Charles County
Howard County
Montgomery County
Prince George’s County
Trone will carry all of the counties in Western MD and Eastern Shore MD,
Frederick County(Washington DC Metro)
Carroll County and Harford County(Greater Baltimore)
Calvert County and St Mary’s County(Southern MD)
I will give Anne Arundel County and Baltimore County to Alsobrooks.
The less populated counties in MD are
Kent/Trone
Somerset/Trone
Garrett/Trone
Dorchester/Trone
Caroline/Trone
Talbot/Trone
Queen Anne’s/Trone
Worcester/Trone
Allegany/Trone
Calvert/Trone
Wicomico/Trone
Cecil/Trone
St Mary’s/Trone
Washington/Trone
Charles/Alsobrooks
Carroll/Trone
The most populated counties in MD
Montgomery/Alsobrooks
Prince George’s/Alsobrooks
Baltimore/Alsobrooks
Anne Arundel/Alsobrooks
Baltimore City/Alsobrooks
Howard/Alsobrook
Frederick/Trone
Harford/Trone
Alsobrooks is likely to be the Democratic nominee.