2026 and 2028 will be the year Democrats will gain seats in the US Senate.
2024.
There are no Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 that Democrats will win.
WY(Barrasso-R),UT(Romney-R),TN(Blackburn-R),ND(Cramer-R),both NE seats(Fischer-R and Ricketts-R) and MS(Wicker-R) are out of the question. Democrats don’t have any top tier candidates.
Democrats will have a credible nominee in FL(Murphy-D),IN(Donnelly-D or Hogsett-D),MO(Kunce-D) and TX(One of the Castro Brothers-D, Scott Kelly-D/AZ US Senator Mark Kelly’s twin brother, or Allred-D).
Democratic held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 that the Democrats will have to work hard to win.
WV(Manchin-D)
MT(Tester-D)
OH(Brown-D)
Democrats are favored to win
AZ(Gallego-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
MI(Slotkin-D)
PA(Casey-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
ME(King-I/D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
DE(Carper-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
VT(Sanders-I/D)
MD(Cardin-D)
MA(Warren-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
CA(Schiff-D)
2026
Democrats will win every Democratic held US Senate seat up for re-election in 2026.
GA(Ossoff-D)
MI(Peters-D)
MN(Smith-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
CO(Hickenlooper-D)
VA(Warner-D)
NH(Shaheen-D)
IL(Durbin-D)
NJ(Booker-D)
OR(Merkley-D)
DE(Coons-D)
RI(Reed-D)
MA(Markey-D)
Democrats will pick up
NC(Cooper-D) and ME(Golden-D).
2028
Democrats will win every Democratic held US Senate seat up for re-election in 2028.
GA(Warnock-D)
NV(Cortez Masto-D)
PA(Fetterman-D)
AZ(Kelly-D)
NH(Hassan-D)
WA(Murray-D)
CO(Bennet-D)
IL(Duckworth-D)
OR(Wyden-D)
NY(Schumer-D)
CT(Blumenthal-D)
CA(Padilla-D)
MD(Van Hollen-D)
VT(Welch-D)
HI(Schatz-D)
Democrats will pick up
WI(Rodriguez-D,Kaul-D,or Godlewski-D) and NC(Jackson-D)