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Mark Hertling: If Ukraine-Russia Negotiations Fail, Victory Remains an Option
Mark Hertling - If Ukraine-Russia Negotiations Fail, Victory Remains an Option
The secretary of state and the top American commander in Europe just gave two very different perspectives on the war.
Mark Hertling
Apr 21, 2025
ON FRIDAY, SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO announced that “in a matter of days,” the administration would decide whether negotiating an end to the Russia-Ukraine War is “doable.” It’s unclear what the administration would do if it determined that negotiations had failed—in that case, Rubio said, “We’ll do what we can on the margins.” But Rubio’s clear frustration contrasts markedly with the testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this month of Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the soldier most knowledgeable about the current situation in Europe and Ukraine. That testimony mostly went unnoticed by the media.
Cavoli’s message was clear and precise: Ukraine is fighting with incredible resolve, Russia is not adapting quickly enough even after three years of fighting, and both sides are running dangerously low on the means to continue their fight without outside support. His testimony punctured the false narrative being spread by President Trump and members of his national security team—that Russia is winning, Ukraine is doomed, and future U.S. support would be wasted. That view, repeated by President Trump on multiple occasions, is more than misinformation. It is a view that distorts the battlefield reality and the critical strategic interests of the United States and our allies.
Cavoli didn’t mince words. His assessment was that “Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated,” with significant numbers of artillery shells, drones, and long-range fires being produced and sourced from abroad. Their military is battered, but not yet broken—and their will to press troops—including North Korean troops and Chinese “volunteers”—into a meat grinder remains intact.
The Supreme Allied Commander didn’t say explicitly that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, but he did stress that “the Ukrainians depend on us . . . uniquely . . . for their high-end anti-aircraft systems.” And reading between the lines, demand for artillery ammunition continues to exceed supply. He praised the Czech Republic for delivering 70,000 rounds to Ukraine this month but also noted that the Russians are expected to produce 250,000 shells per month. (The Russian’s shells aren’t as accurate, so they take more shells to hit each target; still, no military commander wants to be the one with less ammunition.) He stressed that delays in American aid “have a rapid and deleterious on [the Ukrainians’] ability to fight.”
/snip
The secretary of state and the top American commander in Europe just gave two very different perspectives on the war.
Mark Hertling
Apr 21, 2025
ON FRIDAY, SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO announced that “in a matter of days,” the administration would decide whether negotiating an end to the Russia-Ukraine War is “doable.” It’s unclear what the administration would do if it determined that negotiations had failed—in that case, Rubio said, “We’ll do what we can on the margins.” But Rubio’s clear frustration contrasts markedly with the testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this month of Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the soldier most knowledgeable about the current situation in Europe and Ukraine. That testimony mostly went unnoticed by the media.
Cavoli’s message was clear and precise: Ukraine is fighting with incredible resolve, Russia is not adapting quickly enough even after three years of fighting, and both sides are running dangerously low on the means to continue their fight without outside support. His testimony punctured the false narrative being spread by President Trump and members of his national security team—that Russia is winning, Ukraine is doomed, and future U.S. support would be wasted. That view, repeated by President Trump on multiple occasions, is more than misinformation. It is a view that distorts the battlefield reality and the critical strategic interests of the United States and our allies.
Cavoli didn’t mince words. His assessment was that “Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated,” with significant numbers of artillery shells, drones, and long-range fires being produced and sourced from abroad. Their military is battered, but not yet broken—and their will to press troops—including North Korean troops and Chinese “volunteers”—into a meat grinder remains intact.
The Supreme Allied Commander didn’t say explicitly that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, but he did stress that “the Ukrainians depend on us . . . uniquely . . . for their high-end anti-aircraft systems.” And reading between the lines, demand for artillery ammunition continues to exceed supply. He praised the Czech Republic for delivering 70,000 rounds to Ukraine this month but also noted that the Russians are expected to produce 250,000 shells per month. (The Russian’s shells aren’t as accurate, so they take more shells to hit each target; still, no military commander wants to be the one with less ammunition.) He stressed that delays in American aid “have a rapid and deleterious on [the Ukrainians’] ability to fight.”
/snip