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SunSeeker

(57,953 posts)
Sat Feb 14, 2026, 12:41 PM 19 hrs ago

A new mortgage crisis is quietly hitting those who can least afford it

Source: Washington Post



According to New York Fed data, the 90-plus-day mortgage delinquency rate for families in the lowest-income bracket jumped from 0.5 percent in 2021 to nearly 3 percent by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, folks in the highest-income areas are doing just fine, maintaining “historically lower delinquency rates.”

When the Fed examined what might account for the disparities in mortgage performance, it concluded the job market could be a major contributor. Although the latest jobs report from the Labor Department shows some gains in January, the rebound was limited to just a few sectors, such as health care. Nationwide, unemployment is relatively low, but “worsening” regional labor markets are making it hard for people to keep up with their mortgage payments.

“Two-thirds of counties have seen their local unemployment rates rise, and 5 percent of the population lives in counties where unemployment rates have risen by more than 1.6 percentage points,” according to the New York Fed.

The number of job openings has trended down to 6.5 million, a decrease of nearly 1 million openings over the last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. If you’re unemployed or looking to take on a second job, this data indicates there are fewer positions to apply for than there were a year ago, likely leading to more competition for the roles that remain.



Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/14/mortgage-problems-delinquencies/



But hey, the Dow hit 50,000! If you have to work for a living, that's your problem.

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Fiendish Thingy

(22,533 posts)
1. For comparison, the 2008-09 housing collapse occured when 8% of mortgages were in arrears
Sat Feb 14, 2026, 12:51 PM
19 hrs ago

That was for all mortgages, not just those for low income households, but they were largely high risk mortgages for those with bad credit, something found more often in low income borrowers.

SunSeeker

(57,953 posts)
3. The delinquency rate quintupled in just the last 4 years. If it merely doubles this year to 6%, it'll approach 2008.
Sat Feb 14, 2026, 01:32 PM
18 hrs ago

But we have so many economic problems going on that this is just one alarm bell of many that the Trump administration is ignoring.

Cheezoholic

(3,597 posts)
4. If the warnings from many of these AI experts are true we are not far from a complete collapse of the job market
Sat Feb 14, 2026, 01:55 PM
18 hrs ago

Possibly twice as bad or more than the Great Depression. And it will be middle to upper middle class white collar jobs. I dont believe it will happen within 2 years as many are predicting but 5 to 10 is highly possible. Guaranteed minimum income may not be far off.

durablend

(9,078 posts)
10. "Guaranteed minimum income may not be far off" HAHAHAHAHAHA
Sun Feb 15, 2026, 07:22 AM
58 min ago

Never happening. That's why TPTB behind the scenes are silently mentioning plans to start getting rid of people.

progree

(12,830 posts)
6. But but there was a big surge in jobs, according to the govt's own figures. Here's the job report in a nutshell,
Sat Feb 14, 2026, 02:41 PM
17 hrs ago

Here's how the payroll jobs numbers looked before the new Feb 11 report

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Non-farm payroll jobs, monthly changes in thousands

Year Jan Feb Mar etc. etc.
2022] 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023] 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024] 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025] 111 102 120 158 19 -13 72 -26 108 -173 56 50


Here's how it looks now:

(in thousands)
Year Jan Feb Mar etc. etc.
2022] 190 819 490 308 301 434 714 290 220 357 303 100
2023] 434 290 68 241 280 225 163 218 156 159 127 154
2024] 175 206 228 64 78 87 53 9 155 33 134 237
2025] -48 42 67 108 13 -20 64 -70 76 -140 41 48

and January 2026 is 130

Differences, in thousands (these are the revisions)

Year Jan Feb Mar etc. etc.
2022] -35 -50 19 3 60 -27 18 53 -7 -43 6 -26
2023] -10 -16 -17 25 53 -32 15 61 -2 -27 -14 -115
2024] 56 -16 -18 -54 -115 0 -35 -62 -85 -11 -127 -86
2025] -159 -60 -53 -50 -6 -7 -8 -44 -32 33 -15 -2


Annual Totals, in thousands

Year Before After Difference
2022] 4555 4526 -29
2023] 2594 2515 -79
2024] 2012 1459 -553
2025]  584  181 -403


2025 comes out to an average of 15k jobs/month. If you remove January, it is 21k/month. A barely above-the-waterline record.

And yet most media headlines are about a big surge in jobs in January. Yes, they cover the benchmark revisions in their articles, but it's the headlines that most people see and remember (and 130,000 jobs in a month is not much, but admittedly it is a "surge" compared to each and all of the dismal 2025 months).

ck4829

(37,517 posts)
8. It's only "quiet" because the illusion has to maintained that Republicans are "good for the economy"
Sat Feb 14, 2026, 05:24 PM
14 hrs ago

Nothing quiet about it; it's you, the media, choosing to be quiet about it.

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