U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump's tariffs hit

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Jul 30 2025 8:30 AM EDT Updated 13 Min Ago


The U.S. economy grew at a much better than expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3% for the April-through-June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation.

That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as a weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.

The period reported Wednesday includes President Donald Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” tariff announcement. Imports had jumped in the first quarters as companies sought to get ahead of the announcement.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/gdp-q2-2025-.html

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From the source -

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BEA News
@BEA_News
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The U.S. economy grew at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2.
https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

#GDP
8:30 AM · Jul 30, 2025

Article updated.

Original article -

Published Wed, Jul 30 2025 8:30 AM EDT


Gross domestic product was expected to grow at a 2.3% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

[JMCKUSICK]

1. Am I supposed to believe that?

I'm sorry but all he does is lie, I'd fully expect he would have everyone else do it too.

[mdbl]

39. Always my first response. How do you believe a bunch of liars?

Last edited Thu Jul 31, 2025, 07:04 AM - Edit history (1)

[ananda]

40. I just think of it as Trumpaganda.

Sheesh

[Phoenix61]

2. This is due to a downturn in imports and an uptick

That uptick couldn’t possibly be due to everything being more expensive because of the tariffs could it? Talk about cooking the books.

[progree]

24. The reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted, that's why it's called "real GDP"

"Real" means inflation-adjusted in BEA and BLS-speak
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

Real GDP and Related Measures
(Percent change from Q1 to Q2)

Real GDP 3.0
Current-dollar GDP 5.0
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers 1.2
Gross domestic purchases price index 1.9
PCE price index 2.1
PCE price index excluding food and energy 2.5

[Igel]

42. Flipped.

They subtracted imports from US output/product for 1Q, which soared in anticipation of tariffs and "gut loading" the supply chains with all kinds of yummy things.

In 2Q imports dropped off, so there was less to subtract and the remainder was larger.

Given the imbalance, until further notice the best we can do on the fly is take the average of the two. It's wrong--there were some underlying issues in 1Q.

[Lovie777]

3. Maybe for the upper class.................

not where I am tho. Prices are getting ridiculous. Veggies are not in good shape, etc.

And the eggs are still too damn high.

[LisaL]

14. And people that i know of, losing their jobs

right and left.

[OldBaldy1701E]

41. Well, that's what's important, isn't it?

[Bluestocking]

4. Sure it did

[FBaggins]

5. And the inflation indicator was much lower than forecast

2.1% vs 2.5% (both down from the previous 3.7%)

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. According to who?

All economic news from government agencies is now suspect due to purges of "non-loyalists"

[FBaggins]

10. The Bureau of Economic Analysis

Which remains largely independent of the administration's tentacles.

The current head was appointed in 2022.

[NutmegYankee]

15. No part of the government is independent anymore.

Last edited Wed Jul 30, 2025, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)

The fear is real, even if people were there before January. Say the wrong thing and you are instantly fired.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

18. Thank you for pointing out the facts, even if they run counter to the rampant confirmation bias on full display here. nt

[progree]

29. We're consistent here: Good economic numbers result in endless charges of "cooked books" and "Krasnov manipulation"

Bad economic numbers, like the last CPI report was taken as proof that tariffs and labor shortages were re-igniting inflation. And the disastrous May retail sales report (minus 0.9%) also was accepted as proof that the economy was falling apart. None of these threads got any responses about book-cooking or manipulation.

Please give us credit for being consistent

[Miguelito Loveless]

33. So, no one there

is massaging numbers to avoid Trump firing them? Also, there sources of data are uncorrupted?

Not being paranoid, but the times call for massive skepticism about any "official" government pronouncement.

[FBaggins]

36. Yes... you're being paranoid

That isn’t proof that it isn’t happening… but there also isn’t any evidence that it is.

Keep in mind that this isn’t a black box with “3.0%… trust us” on the side. The report is quite detailed and breaks things down to very granular categories. It would be nearly impossible to make things up without getting caught

[progree]

26. I don't remember the "previous 3.7%", but you are right --

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the first quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent.

(emphasis added)

[Javaman]

7. A cooked book diversion from epstein

DT:We grew bigly, so bigly the best ever bigly in the history of the United States, because of me. Nobody have grown it more bigly than me ever. I’ll take questions

He preens as he waits for the first question

Reporter with a spine (probably from Scotland): sir, is this a tactic to sever your attention from your involvement with Epstein and not releasing the client list?

DT: you are a nasty man. Press thingy is over i have gol..work to do!!!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

32. Not cooked, not a diversion though it was seized upon by cheerleader-in-chief Hassett, number one economics toady

From MarketWatch:

Key details: The trade deficit had the biggest influence by far on GDP. A plunging deficit added a whopping 5 percentage points to U.S. growth.

Had trade been neutral, GDP could have shown a decline.

By contrast, a record trade deficit shaved a record 4.6 percentage points off GDP in the first quarter. That lead to the first decline since early 2022.

"Tariffs are complicating the interpretation of economic data, and the GDP figures are just the latest example," said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet.

Averaging the two quarters yields 1.25%, which would be considered weak if times were normal.

[progree]

37. Marketwatch warned yesterday that the GDP number would be high, but not because economy is great

Last edited Wed Jul 30, 2025, 11:53 AM - Edit history (1)

GDP is ready to pop, but not because the U.S. economy is popping, Marketwatch, 7/29/25
(remember, this is well-before the release of today's GDP report)
https://archive.ph/LPmfZ

By the way the last and final estimate of Q1 GDP was minus 0.2%.
So, averaging the two quarters together: -0.2% and +3.0% = 2.8%/2 = 1.4%

Edit I was wrong about Q1 GDP, it is reported as minus 0.5% in today's release

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
and https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

So, like you say, the 2 quarters average to just 1.25%

[speak easy]

8. I am nor rooting against the U.S. economy. n/t

[Maeve]

9. I'm not rooting against the economy but...there have been warnings from economists about book-cooking

And you can trust this mis-administration about as far as you can spit a rat

[Bernardo de La Paz]

22. Warnings only. None of them say it is occurring. None of them distrust the figures at this point. . . . nt

[hamsterjill]

11. Of course, the media is ALL over this. So eager to give the orange asshole some credit.

This is bullshit. Every business that I know is hurting. I can't go to the grocery store for more than five items without paying at least $100, and the housing market in South Texas is about to tank.

Insurance costs are out of this world, medical care is harder to find. There is NOTHING good about this administration, and I resent the media trying to sugar coat what's going on.

Sound pissed off? Yep, that's my attitude since the asshole was put back in control.

[LisaL]

12. I am having trouble believing it as well.

In my field, a lot of people are losing their jobs.

[hamsterjill]

16. I retired this spring from a national homebuilding company

They are laying people off right and left in our area. Employees are stressed and worried.

[NutmegYankee]

13. Bullshit! The RMVP was more belivable than our current commerce department.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. Cynicism blinds many people. A form of confirmation bias.

Figures run your way? Big news.
Figures run against you? Don't believe them! Corrupt!

There are plenty of reasons the numbers have come out the way they have and they can be discovered by digging a bit deeper. But very few here dare question their own confirmation bias.

[LisaL]

19. Maybe it would be easier to believe

if I saw any evidence of this so-called improvement in the economy around me. All i see is prices are getting higher and people I know of, are losing jobs.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. There are legitimate reasons why the figure is up even while you see anecdotal evidence against it

There is evidence in the data that the job market is fraying a little bit at the edges, but it is not yet heavy. The change (second derivative) in inflation (first derivative) has ticked up one tenth of one percent.

The GDP figures dropped Q1 because of tariff expectations and gyrations. Q2 is the mirror. Both cases are aberrations because of uncertainty and tariff turmoil. Neither is as indicative as would be in normal times. Neither has been jiggered.

[LisaL]

21. I am living the "anecdotal evidence."

Certainly nothing has improved for me personally.

[unblock]

25. Yeah, the economy is not homogeneous so it's can be hard to reconcile sometimes.

Unemployment is still very low, but try finding a tech job these days as AI is leading to major layoffs, just as one example.

I think the figures are probably pretty close to the aggregate reality, but the good news may well be temporary.

[unblock]

23. Yeah, I have access to a lot of private business data, and what we're seeing aligns with decent gdp growth

I can't be precise enough to confirm 3.0% growth exactly, but I'm seeing a modest bump in sales and am certainly no longer in recession watch like I was 3-4 months ago.

The markets and to a lesser extent businesses are largely ignoring the tariff noise because Donnie has lost all credibility with his massive pronouncements followed by massive retreats and delays and exceptions.

More uncertainty is in the inflation numbers, I have less private visibility into this. Gas prices seem to have backed off a little and that might be driving the better figures, which means it may be temporary.

[bucolic_frolic]

27. Frontrunning tariffs with imports juiced the numbers

even allowing for real adjustments.

Plus it's summer and MAGA Americans are spending more because they are so happy that brainy people are unemployed.

[walkingman]

28. If "they" tell you things are good then by god things are good - next question?

Remember the band with Steve Winwood; Eric Clapton; Ginger Baker, Ric Grech ?....BLIND FAITH!!

[Ritabert]

30. Statistics coming out of this administration are not credible

[Cheezoholic]

31. Yet the price gouging at the kitchen table continues. I have yet to see a any type of relief from grocery prices

utility bills, basic insurance costs. Gas is a bit cheaper but it always is this time of year, that's about it. They (anyone in office) can toss these economic number's around all they want. The people I talk to, MAGA or not, when they sit down at the table at the end of the month to pay bills they are still struggling overall.

That's the most important number right there period.

[dem4decades]

34. I keep waiting for the economic problems that were forecast during the Trump presidency, where are they in the numbers?

I get it, prices haven't gone down, but why haven't the inflation numbers gone up? I understand Trump cooks the books but the numbers should be somewhere other than the price of coffee and toys.

[progree]

38. The last CPI report was kinda hot, and people here took it as confirmation that tariffs and immigrant labor shortages

were re-igniting inflation.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143496078

We get a look at PCE inflation for June tomorrow, the Fed's favorite gauge. I don't expect it to be as high as the CPI report was, because it seldom is. That's partly or mostly because the PCE is a "chained" index which means that, for example, if enough consumers switch from beef to turkey necks and other lower-cost kinds of meat, then it will show up as a decrease in meat prices in the PCE. That's because chained types of indices fully include substitution effects.

One other thing comes to mind: the PCE puts LESS weight on shelter than the CPI does. Shelter increases have been high relative to most other components, so this tends to make the PCE come out lower than the CPI.

The estimate for tomorrow's PCE June over May increases are +0.3% for both the regular and the core numbers (those are about 3.6% when annualized, which is kinda hot), but I doubt they will be that high, again because of the substitution effect.

[Rebl2]

35. Fake news