Wholesale inflation measure was unchanged in June
Source: CNBC
Published Wed, Jul 16 2025 8:32 AM EDT Updated 6 Min Ago
A measure of wholesale prices showed no change in June, providing a conflicting sign over whether tariffs threaten to boost inflation in the coming months.
The producer price index was flat, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2%. The same was true for core PPI, which also was expected to show a 0.2% increase.
Combined with Tuesday’s consumer price index release, the data suggests that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are indicating only a marginal bite on the U.S. economy and the prices for goods and services.
Though the numbers for headline and core wholesale inflation were subdued, final demand goods prices rose 0.3%, though they were offset by a 0.1% fall in services. Within the goods category, tariff-sensitive communication equipment posted a gain of 0.8%. Core goods prices also rose 0.3%.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/ppi-inflation-report-june-2025.html
From the source -
Link to tweet
@BLS_gov
·
Follow
PPI for final demand unchanged in June; goods advance 0.3%, services fall 0.1% #BLSData https://bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_07162025.htm
8:31 AM · Jul 16, 2025
Article updated.
Original article -
A measure of wholesale prices showed no change in June, providing a conflicting sign over whether tariffs threaten to boost inflation in the coming months.
The producer price index was flat, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2%.
The same was true for core PPI, which also was expected to show a 0.2% increase.
Combined with Tuesday's consumer price index release, the data suggests that President Donald Trump's tariffs are indicating only a marginal bite on the U.S. economy and the prices for goods and services.
This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Last edited Wed Jul 16, 2025, 10:37 PM - Edit history (4)
I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs.
ALL the numbers are the seasonally adjusted ones
The "1 month" number is the change from May to June expressed as an annualized number.
The "3 month" number is the growth over the last 3 months (and then annualized). It is calculated based on the change in the index number between the latest one and the one 3 months previous. e.g. if the latest index value is 304 and the one 3 months previous is 300, then the 3 month increase is 1.333333%
. . . (304/300 = 1.01333333 => [subtract 1 and multiply by 100%] => 1.333333%)
Annualized, it is 5.4%
. . . (1.01333333^4 = 1.0544095 => [subtract 1 and multiply by 100%] => 5.44095% => 5.4%).
. . . Most people just multiply the 3 month increase by 4 to annualize it: 1.333333%*4 = 5.333333% => 5.3% which isn''t technically correct (it leaves out compounding) but it is close for small percentage changes.
"Regular" is the "headline" number that has "everything"
"Core" is the regular with food, energy, and trade services removed (The Fed prefers this as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation. Backtesting has found this to be true. ).
WHOLESALE INFLATION (PPI - the Producer Price Index)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
As for which core PPI measure, since the BLS highlights the one below (without food, energy, and trade services) in its reporting (as opposed to the one without food and energy), then I guess I should do likewise. Trade services bounce around a lot from month to month, so I think excluding them from a core measure is the right thing to do.
To summarize (and again the below are calculated from the index values and then annualized):
Latest 3 months average annualized: Regular PPI: +0.2%, Core PPI: -0.3%
Latest month annualized: (June over May): Regular PPI: +0.1%, Core PPI: -0.6%
Edited to add yesterday's CPI numbers, since some seem to have missed that report, also put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Latest 3 months average annualized: Regular CPI: +2.4%, Core CPI: +2.4%
Latest month annualized: (June over May): Regular CPI: +3.5%, Core CPI: +2.8%
all of which were substantial increases from May, and all above the Fed's 2% target
CORE PPI (excluding food, energy, trade services) through June that came out 7/16/25:
CORE PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
===========================================================
Regular PPI through June that came out 7/16/25 ( includes "everything" ):
Regular PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
===========================================================
If one doesn't believe my graphs, one can generate their own from these links:
CORE PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
Regular PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
For whichever link you want to check, click on the link,
near the top right side is "More Formatting Options". Click on that
On the left side of the page that appears, click on these checkboxes:
Original Data Values, 1-Month Percent Change, 3-Month Percent Change, and 12-Month Percent Change.
Change the "Specify Year Range" to 2024 to 2025
Click Retrieve Data.
They don't annualize their numbers, but one can approximately annualize their 1-month numbers by multiplying by 12, and their 3-month numbers by multiplying by 4. (see top of this post on how I annualize using the actual index numbers).
Realize they start at January 2024 (when you specify the year range as 2024 to 2025) whereas my graphs start with June 2024.
I do this sanity check every time I post graphs like these (except for the PCE inflation which is produced by the Commerce Dept and one can't generate graphs like these straight from anything I know of).
Latest 12 month average : Core PPI: 2.5%, Regular PPI: 2.4%
Yes, I know, yesterday's CPI numbers and this: Trumpflation Spikes in June as tariffs show up in the data PROVED that tariffs and immigrant labor shortages were driving inflation upward, and were prominently featured on the home page. Nobody in either of the CPI threads I saw suggested manipulated numbers.
while today's PPI numbers, also provided by the BLS, show that Krasnov and Big Balls are manipulating them.
the month DOGE got their hands on the data system, February of this year onwards. My question is are those graph's supposed to tell us that inflation is 0 for June? I find that very very hard to believe as I find the entire data output by the BLS very hard to believe since DOGE got in there. From where I stand as a consumer prices have risen around 10% (I keep receipts for a year and check them) since January alone and are still up over 20% since last January. I know its not scientific but it is a reflection somewhat of what the consumer gets hit by, which IMO is the most important. Even if wholesale prices fall that hardly ever gets reflected back into retail I would think. Especially with the lack of competition in todays retail economy.
Maybe I'm way off base, like i said I don't understand economics well. Thank you for doing the work for us though, it's greatly appreciated!!
