Trump endorsement makes Dem Senate candidate the favorite in deep red state

[LetMyPeopleVote]

Paxton is a major league asshole with a ton of dirt. Until yesterday, Cornyn was running some very effective attack ads on Paxton. There have been at least two Cornyn ads attacking Paxton for every one Paxton ad. Talarico is a great candidate and we may flip Texas blue

Trump endorsement makes Dem Senate candidate the favorite in deep red state #RawStory

— #TuckFrump (@realtuckfrumper.bsky.social) 2026-05-19T18:44:22.000Z

https://www.rawstory.com/talarico-trump-paxton/

President Donald Trump's endorsement of Republican Ken Paxton on Tuesday could backfire in the Texas Senate primary race — putting Democrat Rep. James Talarico in the lead for the first time, according to a Kalshi Prediction Market report.

Kalshi has signaled that the president's move could flip the ruby-red Senate seat to blue.

"The Trump endorsement likely carries clear, quantifiable weight in Paxton's chances, as shown by the absurd 40% rise in odds of Paxton's chances to win the nomination," Kalshi reported.

"Likely as a result, traders in the market on the general election for the open Senate seat in Texas have perceived this as good news for James Talarico, who is now favored for the first time ever," according to Kalshi.

If elected, Talarico would be the first Democrat to hold a Senate seat in Texas since 1993.

[drray23]

1. I really hope so.

But I am skeptical. For years now, we are told Texas is about to flip. Beto was also supposed to win..

Somehow the polls are tight but at the end the republicans asshole voters always come out .

[ITAL]

2. If Talarico wins it's good news

However, I tend to think Paxton will prevail and we'll be kicking ourselves that we only had a fairly normal Republican in the seat and now we'll have a complete whackjob.

[fujiyamasan]

5. Who knows

Paxton is so corrupt, he’ll likely commit some crime or the other. It’s be great if he’s forced to resign after a democratic DOJ takes him down.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

3. This makes me smile

[Cha]

4. Please Texas Dems GOTV!!!

There better Not be any cheating going on!

[newdeal2]

6. Dems are never the favorite in Texas

They will have some dirty tricks up their sleeves. Let's not kid ourselves.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. This made me smile

[LetMyPeopleVote]

8. As Republicans seethe over Trump's decision to elevate the weaker, more extreme Senate candidate in Texas, a Democratic

As Republicans seethe over Trump’s decision to elevate the weaker, more extreme Senate candidate in Texas, a Democratic operative who knows the state explains what the path to victory now looks like.

Trump Screws Himself So Badly on Texas Race, GOPers Visibly Stunned

As Republicans seethe over Trump’s decision to elevate the weaker, more extreme Senate candidate in Texas, a Democratic operative who knows the state explains what the path to victory now looks like.

— Jon Cooper (@joncooper-us.bsky.social) 2026-05-20T15:21:55.947Z

https://newrepublic.com/article/210706/trump-screws-badly-tex-race-gopers-visibly-stunned

Donald Trump just endorsed MAGA nutjob Ken Paxton in the Texas GOP primary for Senate, potentially killing off establishment incumbent Senator John Cornyn. As GOP senators absorbed this news, reporters described them as “visibly dismayed” and “stone-faced.” Senator Lisa Murkowski openly declared that Trump has now put the seat “in jeopardy,” asking: “How does that help strengthen the president’s hand when we lose a state like Texas?” Translation: Trump has screwed himself and his party in a big way. This might cost them the seat, and at a minimum it makes it much harder to hold. So is Texas actually gettable for Democrats? We talked to Democratic operative Sawyer Hackett, a veteran of Texas races. He explains why Paxton is much weaker than Cornyn, why a perfect storm of conditions in the state could bring about the unthinkable, what Democrat James Talarico’s path to victory looks like, and what could still go wrong for Democrats.

Here is a transcript of this podcast

trump did not endorse Paxton until Tuesday of last week after early voting had started. A ton of vote by mail ballots had no doubt been already cast. Corynyn had more money than Paxton and had a great deal of good material to work with. Paxton is a major league asshole. Cornyn is still running negative ads on Paxton. This will be fun to watch.

[DavidDvorkin]

9. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predictit all show the GOP winning that seat

The margin has narrowed, but the GOP is still predicted to win, so I wonder what traders the article is referring to.

Perhaps that will change over the next few days.