Cooking the numbers or flawed economic model ?

[drray23]

https://fortune.com/2026/02/12/stocks-wall-street-us-jobs-number-fed-rate-cuts/

First, the number of jobs added in January—130,000—was roughly double analysts’ expectations. Analysts aren’t always right, of course. But it is interesting that the reported number was way out of line with economists’ estimates.

Second, the BLS revised downward the number of jobs it previously reported for 2024–25. The real number was just 181,000, the agency said, and not the 584,000 it had estimated earlier.

That suggests the January number may also be revised downward in the months to come.

Interestingly, they explain that most of the growth supposedly came from the healthcare sector. However this does not jive with other indicators.

Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics went further. They noticed that most of the jobs created were in health care, and the “implausible” new number seems way out of trend.

Look at this miraculous spike we have in healthcare jobs, never mind the fact that the republicans are slashing healthcare and killed the ACA subsidies.

That massive spike in January reflects the flawed statistical model used to collect the data, they argue.

Suspicious. Is it a flawed model or did somebody cook up the numbers to please Trump?

Most likely these will be revised downward like the previous ones.

[spooky3]

1. And Jan 26 was 2/3 of the total for the entire year of 2025? Doubtful. Nt

[Skittles]

4. it is ridiculous

I think their inflation number is ridiculous too........NOTHING can be trusted coming from these grifters.

[BlueSpot]

2. You made me do research - ugh! LOL

I know a lot of nurses were on strike in January but, as it turns out, not nearly enough to require 80,000 scabs (if I'm reading the chart correctly).

Because of that, and because of Occam's razor, my vote is that someone is cooking the books to please Trump. I also agree that the numbers will eventually be revised downward. No telling when though. Probably when they think it's been long enough that no one remembers the details.

[Dave says]

3. When will the numbers be revised downward?

Sometime after the midterms.