Trumpflation Spikes in June as tariffs show up in the data

[Johnny2X2X]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-accelerates-in-june-as-investors-eye-tariff-related-price-increases-123643223.html

2.7% year over year, 0.3% for the month. May was 2.4% and 0.1%. Expect more of this going forward.

Who could have thought that raising the price of everything would raise prices?

Expect the media to either completely ignore this, or in some cases pretend it's a good thing. 2.6% was the expected number.

[dalton99a]

1. More to come

[OrlandoDem2]

2. This is only the beginning. People need to close their wallets and save their money!!

[dalton99a]

3. +1. It'll get worse as companies "update" their prices with the Trump tariffs

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Yup

The economy is driven almost entirely by regular people having money and being willing to spend it. Now is the time to save save save, no one knows what is coming next.

[bearsfootball516]

5. And this is exactly why Powell has been refusing to lower interest rates.

He saw this coming.

[dalton99a]

6. +1

[Bluetus]

7. Meanwhile "Shrinkflation" running wild.

Products are getting smaller and smaller.

About the only candy I like are the Mounds bars. Each one used to be about 2" long. Now I can't find those anywhere. They sell "snack size" and "miniature", and those are barely over an inch in a bag that is mostly puffed up with air.

The sandwiches at Panera Bread are about 20% smaller than they were a year ago.

[modrepub]

8. On The Bright Side

This should help with portion sizing. Most Americans consume too many calories anyway, right?

[BoRaGard]

9. #trumpflation sucks

everybody says

[Old Crank]

10. The headline seems a little breathless for

a 0.1% rate more than expected. Even the 0.3 increase, if continuing, comes out to under 4% total for the year.

I want to see what happens with the tariffs on copper and how that will hit. That will add 25% minimum to all copper products, and perhaps a lot more if US suppliers jack their prices to take advantage.

Powell was right to hold the line. Another 2 months of 0.3% will have the FED raising the rates.

BTW. Powell's term as head of the fed ends in May 2026, but could stay on until January 2028 as one of the governors. That would be fun.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. Tariff price increases are just starting to be reflected in the Data

Expect this to rise every month for a while. 2.4% last month to 2.7% this month is significant enough a jump to be concerned about. Biden was getting hammered for similar jumps when he took over the mess of an economy Trump left him.

[DallasNE]

12. The .3% Is On Top Of Existing Inflation

So it would be 3.6% on top of the 2.4%, or 6%.

[progree]

14. Currently ...

You can see the CPI index values at

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

Year over Year (12 months):
June 2024: 313.131
June 2025: 321.500
+2.67%

Latest month change:
May 2025: 320.580
June 2025: 321.500
+0.287% (rounds to the reported +0.3%)

You can see year-over-year numbers by clicking "More Formatting Options" at the upper right
and on the page that appears, click the "12 month percent change" box, and any others you want to check, like "one month percent change".

Similarly, CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
+2.91%
+0.228% (rounds to the reported +0.2%)

The increases they report are the increases in their index values (the cost of a hypothetical basket of goods and services). They are not increases above and beyond "existing inflation".

[Dave says]

13. 3.1% is the average since the Great Depression

[progree]

15. Graphs

News report from the source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

I annualize everything to be comparable to each other and to compare to the Fed's 2% target

They are calculated using the actual index values, not from the rounded off monthly change numbers.

The CPI rise averaged 2.4% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 2.4%)
The June one month increase annualized is: CPI: 3.5%, (core CPI: 2.8%)

REGULAR CPI


CORE CPI


Both the CPI and Core CPI 3 month rolling average were helped a lot when the huge January increases dropped out of the 3-month window, and were hurt a lot when the March decrease for the CPI and the tiny increase for the Core CPI dropped out of the window.

The rolling 12 months averages graph is below. They were hurt by last year's very small June 2024 month-over-month increases dropping out of the 12 month window. What drops out of the window is just as important as what enters the 12 month window (which is the latest, June 2025).



Some featured items from the BLS news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Increases in June over May:
Shelter: +0.2%, Energy: +0.9%, Gasoline: +1.0%, Food and food at home: +0.3%, Food way from home: +0.4%,

12 month increases:
Energy: -0.8%, Food: +3.0%

Bar graph of increases and decreases of various CPI components arranged from highest increase to lowest and then decreases, 12 month numbers (year-over-year)

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/june-inflation-breakdown-consumers-feel-the-pinch-with-tariffs-looming-181129115.html
Household energy +7.1%
Auto insurance: +6.1%
Housing: +4.0%
Restaurant meals: +3.8%
. . .
Hotel rooms: -2.5%
Electrionics: -3.3%
Airfare -3.5%
Gasoline: -8.3%

[AZ8theist]

16. This report is BULLS**T!!

A highly intelligent stable individual told me that the price of eggs is DOWN 92%!!!

[progree]

17. highly intelligent stable individual has been hammering Powell for weeks, saying "THERE IS NO INFLATION!"

[cstanleytech]

18. It's actually a tax he and the Congressional Republicans are using on the American people.

[EnergizedLib]

19. Let's go

Keep it going. Keep the inflation and recession going up to a 2026 Blue Wave.