The great EV pullback has begun (The Verge)

[usonian]

https://www.theverge.com/electric-cars/700767/ev-cancel-delay-tax-credit-nissan-honda-tesla

Posted in GD for its general impact.

Electric vehicles are at a crossroads. Sales are still going up, but many automakers are canceling or delaying new models, worried by recent policy moves that will make EVs more expensive to own.

Every day seems to bring fresh news of a delayed EV or a timeline that’s been pushed back, as automakers struggle to adapt to this newly volatile environment. President Donald Trump’s tariffs aren’t helping much, nor is the recent passage of his $3.4 trillion “big, beautiful” budget bill, which takes a sledgehammer to most EV incentive programs. And Trump’s decision to reverse tougher emissions rules passed under former President Joe Biden is just icing on a pretty unappetizing cake.

Expect a big push by car dealers to sell EVs before the $7,500 tax credit ends in September. But after that, the future looks dicey. Many car companies are still assessing the damage, but delaying future models seems like the most popular move right now.

“Automakers that delayed launches over the last few years might have benefited from monitoring the market; however, today’s escalating challenges could be deemed insurmountable, likely resulting in more outright cancellations if the models lack a future abroad,” says Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.

Springtime for Rolling Coal?



Right-Wing Drive?

[pwb]

1. Electric vehicles are great for a second car.

I think they will still take over the world markets. We will get out of reverse again soon.

[LexVegas]

2. Love my EV as a daily commuter. nt

[Dave Bowman]

3. That picture is disturbing as hell.

[usonian]

4. I did a web search. It's the LEAST offensive of the bunch.

Yuck,.

[RandomNumbers]

32. You almost have to appreciate the utter obliviousness

that someone must have, to celebrate belching black smoke into the air everywhere they go.

Oh I am not talking about climate change or the natural environment in any sense - clearly these AH's don't care at all about those things.

But, um, DUH ... someone - possibly you and your kids, will breathe that air. And ya know, what you belch out over there will end up over here at some point, where YOU are breathing. I guess these AH's smoke also, and don't give a shit about dying young or having a crappy life due to lung cancer or asthma? Or really ARE that clueless. I mean, it takes a special level of cluelessness to not realize this stuff, right?



(hopefully in the above it is obvious that the "you" refers to the AH's who think "rolling coal" is a fun thing to do.)

[Mariana]

42. It's not obliviousness. They do it intentionally.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Solid state EV's will be available right around the time Trump leaves office.

If Dems get a trifecta in 2028, then the EV credits will be back, and solid state EV’s will get twice the range with half the charging time, boosting sales through the roof.

EV’s aren’t going away.

[MichMan]

6. If their performance is that good, why the need for subsidies?

[usonian]

9. The subsidies, IMO, are to encourage non-polluting vehicles (which is why Trump is removing them) and

Note. CA is proposing to take up the slack.
https://www.businessinsider.com/california-proposes-ev-buyer-credit-excludes-elon-musk-tesla-2024-11

Gov. Gavin Newsom's proposal for an EV-buyer credit would exclude Elon Musk's Tesla models.
Nov 25, 2024


Newsom said Monday that if the $7,500 federal tax credit was eliminated, he would restart the state's rebate program for zero-emission vehicles, which was phased out in 2023.

The governor's office confirmed to Business Insider that the rebate program could include a market-share cap, which could exclude Tesla or other EV makers. The office did not share details about what market-share limit could be proposed and said the proposal would be subject to negotiations in the California Legislature.

A market-share cap would exclude companies whose sales account for a certain number of total electric-vehicle sales. For instance, Tesla accounted for nearly 55% of all new electric vehicles registered in California in the first three quarters of 2024, a report from the California New Car Dealers Association said. By comparison, the companies with the next-highest EV market share in California were Hyundai and BMW, with 5.6% and 5%, respectively.

Tesla sales in California, the US's largest EV market, have recently declined even as overall sales in the state have grown. Though the company still accounted for a majority of EV sales in California this year as of September, its market share fell year over year from 64% to 55%.

The governor's office said the market-share cap would be aimed at promoting competition and innovation in the industry.

ARGGGHHH Right wingers are against competition and innovation!!! Monopoly and double-time backwards march!!

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. If milk is so delicious, why the need for subsidies?

Would you pay $20 for a gallon of milk?

[MichMan]

12. We drink maybe a quart every 2 months

[haele]

14. Because there's still a lot of consumer myths about EVe

And many EV start-ups looked great to begin with, but couldn't market because EVe are considered expensive to begin with.
It's hard to sell an EV that's $10k more expensive than it's ICE counterpart unless you can really push the fact they're going to be way cheaper in the long run.
Consumers shouldn't worry about not being able to charge an EV quickly and less expensively. They shouldn't have to worry about battery longevity or maintenance.
I just got a terrific deal on a new $68k MSRP Hyundai Ionic 9 lease, in which the subsidy was the thing to bring the price point down to the level I could afford, instead of going with, say, a used "certified" low milage Santa Fe or Flex at around $30k to own.
Haven owned one before, I know I'd be paying several thousands a year - around 3 to 5 thousand minimum just on gas, oil changes, and regular maintenance, while I figure from what I've experienced so far with the Ionic, a slightly larger SUV, I'll be paying around $1200 a year on charges.
With an EV, depending on the time of day I charge the Ionic, at a fast charger I get around 325 miles (recommended 80% charge) for $15 - $25 if I started at 6% charge (equivalent of the "E" line on the fuel display). If I went for the full 100%, the manual says I can get up to 400 miles, depending on the roadway and my driving conditions, but 100% could shorten the expected 10 year lifespan of one or several of the batteries.

If I was buying gasoline for the 17 gallon tank (average sized tank) Santa Fe I'd be spending around $55 at the cheapest station I could find to fill up enough of the tank to get 350 miles driving "economy".
(The manual says it gets 450 for a tank, but that's interstate highway range in the Midwest; I've never managed to get more than 350 in a Santa Fe and typically got 330 city and highway driving before the low fuel light kicked on.)
Not to mention oil changes, fluid level checks, gaskets that can leak, air sensors that can go out, starter systems, transmission systems, ect...
Sure, there is the ability to fix ICE vehicles that isn't as present in an EV, but there are a lot fewer systems that can go wrong.
With an EV, it's all about how proven the technology is, and whether or not the manufacturer is serious about building a reliable brand.
Come to think of the, it's the same way with ICE cars, but they're easier to hide flaws with or how soon before a major repair is going to be needed when it's time to get rid of one than an EV is.

[cab67]

15. I beg to differ on one point:

Consumers shouldn't worry about not being able to charge an EV quickly and less expensively. They shouldn't have to worry about battery longevity or maintenance.

We rented an EV last year while visiting my in-laws in New York and New Jersey. We ended up abandoning the vehicle with a dead battery somewhere in Queens and having it towed back to the airport.

The problem? We couldn't find a charging station, and the apps one downloads to find them are full of misinformation. We'd go to an indicated site and find an empty lot, or a block of apartments, or some other business. No charging station. And no one we asked at these places had any idea what we were talking about. There were charging stations at service plazas along the Garden State Parkway, but most of them were out of order, and there would be multiple cars waiting to use the few that worked.

This wasn't a Tesla, and I acknowledge that the infrastructure for Teslas is somewhat more robust. But - and please understand, I know the future is in EVs - we need to be working just as hard at installing the infrastructure needed to operate these vehicles for anything beyond local driving if they're to succeed.

[MichMan]

20. Even though you would save $3500 per year on gas, you wouldn't have bought an EV without a $7500 tax credit

A tax credit that was just added to the national debt for future taxpayers to deal with.

[haele]

21. And that's why I answered the question why a subsidy is still necessary...

EVs still are dealing with the economy of scale issues.
They're not at the point where they're being sold at the same percentage as, say, a crossover or truck.
They're the cost of a new minivan.
They're still a luxury for anyone who doesn't have $60k on hand or could comfortably pay $1k out of pocket per month for a car payment.
The other issue is that IMO, they're best "sold" as leases; battery technology is getting better at a rate of every 5 to 7 years. Not that one has to actually replace the batteries, it's that with a lease, you can always get a better range or more efficient charging by the end of your lease.
And I understand that completely, the only reason I gotmy Ionic is that the dealer wanted to get it off the lot; they were getting their last pre-tariff delivery of around 3 dozen vehicles within two days, so it was taking up lot space.

[MichMan]

37. The subsidies are just being added to the national debt anyway.

People's kids and/or grandkids will be the ones stuck with paying for them

[haele]

45. Yes and the student loan for the totally unnecessary degree I was required to get to keep my job..

Is still a debt I'm paying off. Likewise, the Pell Grants for that degree will be paid by my Grandchildren. There is a benefit to that useless degree beyond the degree itself.
For reasons you might consider valid or not.
For example, an EV subsidy is similar to a Pell Grant.
It's a publicly paid for personal investment to purchase low carbon emissions vehicle use that eventually could impact the wellbeing of the General Public.
Likewise, an 18 year old using a Pell Grant for a Cisco Certificate, Culinary School, Auto Bodywork, or Cosmetology might be argued to be a personal investment that is not necessary for the general taxpayer to burden, even though any of these training programs may end up being the difference to that individual between a regular career or a life of short term dead end minimum wage jobs separated by periods on the public dole just to survive.

Is the argument about Federal subsidies in general, or subsidies in something that that doesn't seem beneficial to the Public/Taxpayer interest, for whatever reason?

If the latter is the case, let's start with Fossil Fuel, Resource Extraction, and Big Agriculture subsidies...then maybe Greenfield's/Market Investment Subsidies...they cost the average taxpayer far, far more than piddly $5300 or $7k subsidies that less than 2% of the population might apply for on a one-time basis in a year.

[MichMan]

46. If your degree was as useless as you describe, just how does it benefit the general public, both now and in the future ?

[haele]

47. It was useless as I was doing the same job with or without the degree...

The degree was a differentiator among qualifed people.
That position required at the time "a bachelor's or higher degree". The experience or "equivalent training" clause it had previously was removed by some OPM head who was trying to turn the Government into a more Corporate structure, because -who knows?
That "equivalent training or experience" was returned six years later. By then, the money was already spent.
But yes, there are some degrees that are required for a position - especially a senior technical supervisory or engineering position - that are really rather useless in terms of being necessary if you've already the experience or equivalent non-degreed training that qualifies you for that position.

[snot]

38. I've done the math.

The manufacturers seem to have priced vehicles so that WITH a subsidy, you just barely break even on the cost to buy and operate the car over a 10-year life-span or so.

Once you get past 10 yrs. or so, you may be better off with an EV, IF the costs for repairs are no more than they would be with an all-gas vehicle.

Otherwise, in order to be better off with an EV or hybrid, the gas price would have to exceed $5/gallon at some point when there are still a lot of years left on the car. Which may happen, but not in the near-term view.

Despite all that, I'm in favor of EV's and hybrids; but another big fat caveatis that an all-EV isn't going to work for households that can't afford or don't want 2 cars, or for households that lack a private garage where an EV can be safely charged overnight – and that leaves out a LOT of households.

That too might improve if charging times could be reduced to be similar to the time it takes to fill a tank with gas; but people who are working 2 and 3 jobs to try to keep food on the table do not have time to park and charge their cars for a few hours while they shop.

[mahina]

36. How about the subsidies for the oul and gas companies which dwarf the ev subsidies

Because the oil and gas companies get more subsidies than everything else all the time and have for generations? To give us a sliver of a chance to save the future?

[TnDem]

40. 100%

And exactly what needs to be asked....If the product is that good, it won't need to be propped up with a subsidy.

[fujiyamasan]

17. Meh, I hope EV credits are not at the top of the Dem agenda

There are so many other things that should take precedence, given Trump’s assault on well, everything. An overly aggressive EV push at this point just furthers the notion that Dems are coastal elitists.

Eventually consumers will need to make the decision themselves. Yes, there is some misinformation about EVs, but the infrastructure is still limited outside of some states, and weather has a major impact on battery life.

And I say this as a plug in hybrid driver living in CA.

[RandomNumbers]

33. I agree, and I'm not antagonistic to EV credits at all.

There are a ton of issues that I agree with, but should not be at the top of the Dems agenda.

We need to keep it simple, obvious, and MAINSTREAM. Like, the economy, the rule of law, and the Social Security time bomb. If Dems can't work with those topics after what Trump is doing, the party really is a dysfunctional mess.

[msongs]

7. price sells cars. lower the price enuff and they will fly off the lots...so to speak nt

[PSPS]

11. Remove the BYD tariff. Their models start at under $30K.

[MichMan]

19. If the UAW wants to compete, they can either cut their wages in half or face plant closings, right?

[uncle ray]

22. not to worry, there will be plenty of prison camp labor.

[haele]

24. Yet UAW competes with truck and vans.

So it's not a labor issue - it's an economy of scale and quality of scale issue.
Once the EV infrastructure is built out, and the price on smaller ones come down, you will get buyers.
Rather like the the proposal that if gas stations weren't so ubiquitous, public transportation would be used more often.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

25. Exactly! n/t

[MichMan]

28. You know that imported trucks have had 25% tariffs for 60 yrs., right?

Look up the 1964 chicken tax

[Blue Full Moon]

26. Protectionism for American automobiles

That's why Ford and Chevy are so expensive and should really be gotten for fraud. Recalls are ridiculous and sudden catastrophic engine failure should have never been sold.

[MichMan]

30. You think they have engine issues, check out Hyundai and Kia

[fujiyamasan]

18. You're absolutely right!

consumers are particularly price sensitive when it comes to large purchases like cars. You don’t need to be an economist to figure that out.

And subsidies can only lowers a car’s price by so much. Margins on cars aren’t the greatest. Designing, engineering, and manufacturing a new car, can take up to 5+ years and millions of dollars in investments. A few bad models can seriously threaten an automaker’s financial future.

Do we then bail car companies out again in case they don’t sell?

[Bettie]

8. I have a hybrid plug-in Prius

most of my driving is electric, but I do need gas when I go into "town" (from our small town).

[cadoman]

13. it didn't help that arguably the most prolific EV maker turned out to be a Nazi

I'm all about saving the climate but I'm not about to do it by supporting fascism.

[cab67]

16. Teslas are fairly common where we live.

It's a reliably Democratic area. For this reason, bumper stickers that say "love the car, hate the CEO" are also common.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

23. I had to fly last minute to Tampa...

...for a family emergency last year, and I reserved a car while I waited to board my flight. When I arrived, the only available car was a Chevy Bolt (kind of crossover/small SUV). I didn't really want it, not because I'm against EVs, but because I had no idea where I would be able to charge it. The guy at the counter told me I had to return it with a full charge, and I laughed and said he'd be lucky to get it back being towed by AAA.

I was there for three days, it was down to about 40% charge, and I was able to charge it in a rapid charger in the parking lot of an outlet mall, which was nice - my sister and I went to have lunch, went back, and it was charged.

Three days later, when I returned to the airport, I used the airport charger...after an hour, it still showed needing five more hours to fully charge...my flight would have already arrived back home. I told the guy when I turned it in that I charged it as much as I could, and if they needed to charge a fee, to just go ahead (they didn't).

So, my experience, though anecdotal, doesn't push me towards wanting to own an EV, although I really enjoyed driving the vehicle.

[David__77]

27. The US might just largely produce autos for its captive market.

Why should the producers worry about EVs when the best and least expensive ones are banned from import?

[bucolic_frolic]

29. Tax credits to sell vehicles are a subsidy to the industry

Why can't they compete on lower margins, meaning lower prices?

It's COMMUNISM!!!! Using tax revenues from us all to pay the CAPITALIST EV MAKERS!!!

[SickOfTheOnePct]

31. What are the profit margins right now...

...on American-manufactured EVs?

[fujiyamasan]

44. Here are the operating margins for the "big 3" (note stellantis is Italian but own dodge/jeep/chrysler).

https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/automakers-ranked-by-operating-margin/#google_vignette

Stellantis at 2.57
Ford 3.9
Gm 4.44

[usonian]

34. What the hell ISN'T subsidized? Ask the legion of lobbyists.

A way to partly undo the subsidies on oil?
War of subsidies.
Pigs competing at the trough.

It's frickin socialism for industry.

[Initech]

35. My only complaint with EVs is that they're ridiculously expensive.

I'd love to own a Chevy Blazer, Hyundai Ioniq 6, or a Kia EV6, but even those run in the $45 - $55K range.

[flvegan]

39. Check out the used market. EVs depreciate like crazy.

I never thought I'd see a depreciation curve worse than Aston Martin/Bentley/Maserati. I was wrong.

[Initech]

41. Really? Interesting.