VA-GOV: Virginia emerges as key bellwether ahead of midterms

[RandySF]

Virginia’s off-year elections are being viewed by both parties as a key bellwether heading into next year’s midterms, as well as a potential indicator for how voters view President Trump.

Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) will face off to become the first female governor of the state, while Democrats will seek to maintain and grow their majority in the House of Delegates.

The races could prove to be a litmus test for the first year of Trump’s second administration as Republicans prepare to defend their majorities in Congress next year, especially as Virginia has a tendency to oscillate between the two parties in the race for governor.

“The Democrats want to look at this as a bellwether largely because they think they have an advantage here,” said veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth.




https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5384833-virginia-off-year-elections-bellwether-midterms/

[AZProgressive]

1. I don't think Virginia will mean much for the rest of the US

I remember their governor election where the media called Youngkin a "moderate" and when he won people here were scapegoating a college course as to why they lost and predicted that Democrats would do terrible in the 2022 midterms and Democrats actually did better than what the experts the predicted.

The state leans Democratic and if Democrats are expected to do well in the midterms they should win in Virginia but either way I don't think it will mean much for the midterms. I think Democrats will do well in the midterms no matter who wins Virginia that is if they don't make too many mistakes.

[dutch777]

4. I agree. VA is tightly tied to DC for jobs so Trump/DOGE cuts may give an outsize push to Dems more than other states

Not to say any swing more blue is bad, just may not be as much of a bellwether nationally as we may like.

[Mountainguy]

5. I disagree

The Youngkin victory in 2021 was a bellweather, as was the 2017 election.

Virginia is light blue but can certainly swing in their off year gubernatorial cycle.

That said I think most Republicans will be looking to downplay that in the coming months because they are going to get obliterated in this one.

[W_HAMILTON]

6. Yep. Virginia has been and still is rightfully considered a bellwether state.

Democrats may be favored to win, but there is enough Republican opposition in that state that it still portends future elections. I mean, hell, a Republican is currently governor and Democrats are in control of the Virginia General Assembly (its legislative body) by ONE SEAT in each chamber...

As you said, there will be a lot of MAGA defenders over the next few months claiming that Virginia isn't indicative of anything; everyone should be on the lookout and call them out.

[Demovictory9]

2. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears crazy

[Norrrm]

3. Winsome is double DEI acc to her own party, black and female.

Her own party does not respect her.