Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
Editorials & Other Articles
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Putin: A Short-Timer? -- Marvin Kalb
https://contrarian.substack.com/p/putin-a-short-timerWhile negotiating a Ukraine ceasefire, President Donald Trump often uses the language of a poker game. “You don’t have the cards,” he informed the cornered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the recent, humiliating White House showdown.
But if Trump had considered his gaming options a bit more carefully, he might first have cast a skeptical eye on Russian President Vladimir Putin. For not only does Putin not have the “cards”; a careful study of his war in Ukraine suggests he could even be on the edge of losing the whole game.
Certainly, as long as he’s appearing on his state-controlled TV, issuing bold pronouncements, Putin seems secure, even “more secure than ever,” pronounced a recent CNN analysis. But in Russia, appearances can be deceiving, and usually are. Putin’s war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, has run into a mountain of unanticipated problems. What keeps him afloat, ironically, is the political life jacket that Trump has impetuously thrown his way, and Putin has sensibly grasped, and cleverly played to the hilt, flattering Trump’s needy ego and raising totally unrealistic prospects of billions in trade.
When Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, he did not realize he would be making the worst strategic blunder of the 21st century. Nor did his usually sympathetic Kremlin buddies. His intelligence experts, having casing Kyiv’s politics and personalities, assured Putin that the invasion would be the equivalent of a pleasant walk in the woods. Within three days, no more than a week, they prophesied, Ukraine would be his trophy and Zelensky a fading memory.
But that was not to be, far from it. Putin now owns a brutal, costly, all-out war against a Slavic neighbor that has left Mother Russia struggling with a weakened “military-industrial complex,” an economy in shambles, a society in doubt, and his own political position in trouble (not to mention the huge additional challenge of dealing with a zany, unpredictable American president, who keeps proclaiming that there would not have been a Ukraine war if he had won the 2020 election…as he claimed he had).
. . .
Putin’s days as the unchallenged kingpin of the Kremlin seem to be numbered. He gambled in Ukraine, underestimating the resilience and strength of the people, their leader, and its government. Now he is gambling with Trump, considering him—by all appearances—to be basically a “durok,” a childish fool. He seems to be forgetting that Trump one day presents himself as his admirer, prepared to squeeze Zelensky into a pro-Putin ceasefire, and the next day as “angry” and “pissed off” at Putin for delaying a ceasefire and upending his hopes for a Nobel peace prize. Putin is playing with erratic fire if he counts on Trump with a pocketful of matches.
. . .
But if Trump had considered his gaming options a bit more carefully, he might first have cast a skeptical eye on Russian President Vladimir Putin. For not only does Putin not have the “cards”; a careful study of his war in Ukraine suggests he could even be on the edge of losing the whole game.
Certainly, as long as he’s appearing on his state-controlled TV, issuing bold pronouncements, Putin seems secure, even “more secure than ever,” pronounced a recent CNN analysis. But in Russia, appearances can be deceiving, and usually are. Putin’s war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, has run into a mountain of unanticipated problems. What keeps him afloat, ironically, is the political life jacket that Trump has impetuously thrown his way, and Putin has sensibly grasped, and cleverly played to the hilt, flattering Trump’s needy ego and raising totally unrealistic prospects of billions in trade.
When Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, he did not realize he would be making the worst strategic blunder of the 21st century. Nor did his usually sympathetic Kremlin buddies. His intelligence experts, having casing Kyiv’s politics and personalities, assured Putin that the invasion would be the equivalent of a pleasant walk in the woods. Within three days, no more than a week, they prophesied, Ukraine would be his trophy and Zelensky a fading memory.
But that was not to be, far from it. Putin now owns a brutal, costly, all-out war against a Slavic neighbor that has left Mother Russia struggling with a weakened “military-industrial complex,” an economy in shambles, a society in doubt, and his own political position in trouble (not to mention the huge additional challenge of dealing with a zany, unpredictable American president, who keeps proclaiming that there would not have been a Ukraine war if he had won the 2020 election…as he claimed he had).
. . .
Putin’s days as the unchallenged kingpin of the Kremlin seem to be numbered. He gambled in Ukraine, underestimating the resilience and strength of the people, their leader, and its government. Now he is gambling with Trump, considering him—by all appearances—to be basically a “durok,” a childish fool. He seems to be forgetting that Trump one day presents himself as his admirer, prepared to squeeze Zelensky into a pro-Putin ceasefire, and the next day as “angry” and “pissed off” at Putin for delaying a ceasefire and upending his hopes for a Nobel peace prize. Putin is playing with erratic fire if he counts on Trump with a pocketful of matches.
. . .
4 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
