Nate Silver's Pick

[LilElf70]

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nate-silver-reveals-his-pick-for-most-likely-2028-democratic-presidential-nominee/

[Ocelot II]

1. What's he smoking?

[LilElf70]

2. The good stuff

I'd love to see AOC and Booker

[Omnipresent]

13. I don't know about AOC.

There seems to be some serious “Hang ups” in these United States, when it comes to voting for a president, that happens to be a woman.

[LilElf70]

19. I share your thoughts

We're 0-2 so far. Then I have to think about what has occurred in the past 20 years.

I NEVER thought we'd elect a black president. I NEVER thought we'd elect Trump. And then what happened? We friggin did it twice.

I think she is exactly what this country needs. The timing is right. The situation is right. I want a country for the people, not the corporations.

[Omnipresent]

46. We had a black president, because he was our nominee

We had two nominees that were women, but lost to trump.

[Polybius]

47. Obama was also a generational speaker with broad appeal and massive charisma

Even more so than one 16 years before him - Bill Clinton.

[Omnipresent]

49. That's debatable.

They both were charismatic and were voices for change.

[Polybius]

51. It is

I personally like Clinton better as a President, but give Obama a slight edge in charisma and speeches.

Republicans haven't had a charismatic candidate with broad appeal since Reagan. Arnold S. would have been one, but he was ineligible to run.

[elocs]

55. The record for Democratic female presidential candidates is 0/2. Both to Trump.

If we realistically want to beat a Republican candidate such as Vance in '28, then our candidate needs to be a white, straight, male. No, it should not matter, but it does, even among some Democratic voters.
It is imperative that if we have a presidential election in '28 that the Democratic candidate wins. Another Republican/maga president will finish us off.

[anamnua]

71. And charismatic, Christian and centrist.

It would be great if these parameters did not matter. Unfortunately they do

[brush]

29. I'm not mad at Silver for this pick but IMO it's premature as we have a deep bench of...

several choices such as Gov. Whitmer of Mich., Corey Booker of NJ, Gavin Newsom of Calif., Kamala Harris of Calif., Gov. West Moore of Maryland, amd Gov. JB Pritzker or Illinois.

We have choices.

IMO AOC should primary Sen. Schumer in NY.

[Quixote1818]

56. AOC was one of the few candidates who Trump voters also voted for. She is in a perfect position to win.

See here:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/17/trump-aoc-voters

[Self Esteem]

65. AOC represents a district that is almost D +20.

Harris won this district 65-33.

Comparing how a very blue district votes to a potential national election is just not smart.

She was able to win over Trump voters in her district. But it's not uncommon congressional candidates do better than presidential at the congressional level because the issues are more localized than a national election.

The fact is, the Republican actually did better in 2024 vs AOC than in any of her most recent elections.

In 2018, she won this district with 78%.

In 2022, she won it with 71%.

In 2024, she won it with 69%.

[FarPoint]

3. I don't give a shit what he claims...

won't hit the link either.... He is a paid propaganda tool for tRump....end of acknowledging him...he is No One.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. Strategy: read such links for information, not for opinions. Keep in touch with info. . . . nt

[FarPoint]

12. No....

You can't make me....

[Bernardo de La Paz]

15. Oh that is a brilliant reply. Not. Irony is that kind of reply gives more power to the suggestion.

Nobody thinks I am trying to "make" you read it, except you

There is a tactic on DU (and all forums on the internet) that if someone makes a suggestion to a poster, the poster goes off on a tear pretending the suggestion is a command.

The irony is that by interpreting it as a command, the poster gives more power to the suggestion than simply taking it for what it is: a suggestion.

12. No....
You can't make me....

[FarPoint]

18. I hope you are feeling better now...

getting that all off your chest...

[Bernardo de La Paz]

22. Neither of your replies deals with the issue (AOC's power) or the information. We see

In the meantime, see my other posts on this thread for more substantive commentary.

Carry on with the revealing comebacks.

[Polybius]

48. He was hammered here for saying that Trump had a very good chance of winning

But he turned out to be right. DU chose to listen to Michael Moore instead.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. AOC tops the favourability poll by Yale today: 60+ % above water. Astounding. . . nt

[samnsara]

6. i quit nick years ago mainly for nutty ideas like this

[SocialDemocrat61]

7. I would rather see her run for Senate

in New York. But would definitely vote for her for anything.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. I think if AOC announced for Schumer's seat, a month later he'd say he won't reoffer.

Not resign, but wouldn't want ignominious defeat in the primary.

[Polybius]

52. Incumbents losing their primaries are rare

When was the last time it happened? 2014?

[Omnipresent]

14. She needs to replace Schumer.

He seems out of touch these days.

[SocialDemocrat61]

17. I've worked with several older people

Some are great and stay up to date. Some get stuck in old ways of thinking and don’t acknowledge changes in the world. I think things have changed so radically thanks to Trump, Schumer is just not able to understand that it’s a different world now.

[William769]

25. Agreed.

[elocs]

59. How did that work out last year? If Harris or any other woman runs now, they lose.

It shouldn't be that way, but the reality is that is the way it is, even among some Democrats.
We need a candidate who can actually win the election and not just be a noble and righteous choice. We absolutely as a party cannot afford to lose another election to a maga candidate because most Republicans today self-identify as supporting maga.

[SocialDemocrat61]

62. Which is why

I rather see her run for senate.

Don't you agree she'd make a great Senator?

[Silent Type]

8. Would support any of those when they make it through primaries. It really depends on how we do in midterms

and how screwed up trump leaves the country.

I'm kind of hoping someone new/unexpected emerges.

[LilElf70]

10. That would be AOC

[yourout]

9. Would like to see Governor whitmer from Michigan in the fold but maybe she won't run.

Kamala would be a good president but she's a not a good candidate.

[brush]

24. Not a good candidate? You must've missed the '24 Dem convention and her...

short but inspired run for the WH. She was excellent, but most of us here at DU are. aware of the reality of America. Many white people would rather elect a convicted criminal, ajudicated racist, white supremacist asshole trump, instead of a dynamic, forward-thinking African/Indian American woman.

It's the America we live in. Still racist and anti-woman when most major western nations have long since elected a woman president/prime minister.

[yourout]

31. I didn't mean it as a slam against her.

It's just a fact that you might be able to overcome racism or misogyny but it's almost impossible to overcome both at this point.

[brush]

35. Like I said, we're behind as a nation in electing a woman president.

It'll happen in the not so distant furture, especially after trump's spectacularly failing second admin.

Many will realize what a mistake it was to elect him again.

[RobinA]

42. So, Let's Just

keep nominating women and keep losing? If Dems nominate another female I'm taking my toys and going home, never to vote nor follow politics again. Hopeless! If Hilary couldn't get elected no female can right now.

[brush]

45. Come forward to the 21st century. I didn't say keep nominating a woman and keep losing.

Just as it happened in New Zealand, Germany, India, Mexico and other western nations, the right woman will come along when the time is right and she'll win.

Again, come forward, pls.

[In It to Win It]

16. Sure, if she can win the primaries

[jalan48]

20. Big money won't let this happen.

It will take a 1930’s like depression before progressives will be allowed to lead the Party

[Bernardo de La Paz]

23. Don't write off the possibility of a tRump tariff death spiral

[W_HAMILTON]

64. Already claiming rigging? Where have I heard that one before...

[jalan48]

66. Citizens United is rigging, j agree.

[W_HAMILTON]

67. Sanders and the self-funded billionaire candidates were the biggest fundraisers in 2020 Democratic primary...

...and all three lost to a meagerly funded Biden campaign.

We, the voters, will decide who our Democratic nominee will be -- not """big money,""" regardless of whether it comes from a small handful of billionaires or "tens of thousands of grassroots donors across the nation."

[jalan48]

68. I think the right wingers on the Supreme Court who ruled on Citizens United agree with your reasoning.

[W_HAMILTON]

69. Similar to how Trump and his MAGA fascists believe any election they lose is rigged?

[BlueTsunami2018]

21. I like her well enough but she's not remotely qualified to be President.

You want a Reaganesque landslide loss? Do this.

[LilElf70]

26. Really?

And you think Trump is qualified? He's so qualified, he ran 3 times, and won twice. I could go on and on about how unqualified he is.

[emulatorloo]

28. That's the difference between Republicans and Democrats. We don't run unqualified candidates.

Before you jump on me I’m definitely not saying AOC is unqualified. This isn’t a comment on AOC, just an observation about MAGA Republicans

My point is that Democrats do not run Trump types for president.

[BlueTsunami2018]

43. How does acknowledging that she isn't qualified somehow make him qualified?

Of course he’s not qualified. Duh.

The difference is, we’re supposed to care about that sort of thing.

[totodeinhere]

61. AOC is popular with the party's base.

But the establishment hates her. They will block her if at all possible.

[elocs]

63. Yes, it would be a landslide loss, but try convincing the righteous & noble Left of that.

We really, really cannot afford to lose the presidential election in '28 and at the moment that election is not a sure thing.
I'm guessing that most here were certain sure that Harris would beat Trump and I hope they voted for her anyways.

[Quiet Em]

27. Nate Silver is a Trump enabler and promoter.

I'm guessing MAGA is not liking all the heat the con is getting over his self induced economic disaster, his complete lawlessness, and all the other destruction and chaos he's brought, so they want to change the narrative back to their favorite topic - bashing a woman.

I like AOC, a lot. She's growing into becoming a very powerful voice and will keep getting better at it with more experience. But it's way too early to start talking about 2028. We have to win back the House. Our focus needs to be on the midterms and fighting back against the con artist every step of the way.

I'm not going to fall into this narrative change trap they are attempting and neither should you.

[LilElf70]

37. Way too early?

Humpty Dumpty started the day after the last election ended. I thought he was crazy, but it turned out being a good thing. His point was to get people to talk about him constantly. Apparently it works.

[Quiet Em]

40. It works for his cult.

Take him away and his cult is lost.

The way forward is not looking for a Trump on the left.

[4139]

30. She's out there leading the Democratic Party...

If we take the House, she will be the superstar of the party!

I doubt for the presidency, but whoever she gets behind will definitely win the nomination

[LilElf70]

34. Leading is a

prerequisite for leadership. GOOD leadership. She young, smart, educated, and for the people.

Trump is old, toopid, uneducated and for the rich. We couldn't have a better contrast.

[Fiendish Thingy]

32. Although AOC has a bright future in American politics, Silver is full of shit

unless something significant changes in the DNC power structure, the 2028 nominee will be a straight, white male not named Shapiro.

My guess for the potential candidate with the best odds right now is Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky (unless he runs for Mitch’s seat), or perhaps Chris Murphy, but of course, a lot could happen in the next year or so.

Not my preference (Whitmer is my first choice) but I don’t see the DNC showing any willingness to take any big risks at the moment.

I think it’s safe to say the 2028 nominee will NOT be any of the following people:

AOC
Harris
Newsom
Booker
That rich sportscaster guy who is threatening to run

[Ping Tung]

33. I'll be a hpppy voter if he's right.

[LilElf70]

38. There will be 10's of millions

that will be happy too.

[dalton99a]

36. Nate Silver works for Peter Thiel.

[JustAnotherGen]

41. This is a distraction

My prediction? But 2028 we are in full blown Balkanization. And that's i Trump lives or dies, or Vance is in the POTUS Position.

These acts against Blue States are intolerable. Get back to me when they start targeting people in places like Nebraska, Iowa, Texas, South Carolian for rendition.

[JustAnotherGen]

39. Why is he still talking?

He's absolutely worthless.

[Stinky The Clown]

44. AOC, Shapiro, Harris

See. Not hard to write three names instead of forcing a click where I would prefer not to go.

You’re welcome.

[BannonsLiver]

50. Desperate MAGA-lite Chud fighting to stay relevant.

[Demsrule86]

53. Nate Silver is a Republican and sells himself to the highest bidder. His polls if he

still does them are trash. And I would never watch anything he recommends...I believe that is a shitty station anyway

[thought crime]

54. Razor sharp. Has Vision. Out there making some Noise and building the Movement

Got a feeling that by 2028 ANY Democratic nominee will win. But only if our Movement and our Coalition is really huge. Bernie & AOC are out there working on it.

[WarGamer]

57. Not a great choice...

Need someone who looks/sounds like Josh Shapiro, Conor Lamb or Michael Bennet

BUT has the heart, aspirations and goals of AOC and Bernie.

Run as a moderate but govern to the Left.

[Wanderlust988]

58. The 2028 nominee will be male. If the country wasn't ready for Hillary or Kamala,

Then how in the world would we expect them to be ready for AOC? She doesn't appeal to anyone but the extreme base of the party. She may not carry more than 5 states.

[senseandsensibility]

60. I have nothing against AOC

but I worry that the sexism in this country is insurmountable. In addition, how old is she? She seems very young, and I would say that even if she were male. I do love her attitude and that's what's missing from a lot of the old guard.

[Xolodno]

70. It's way too early for this shit.

This is just spouting off for us to cut everyone's throat before anyone has thrown their hat in the ring. For all we know, AOC is just taking up Sanders mantle and intends to run for Senate. We don't know and we shouldn't be calling "all in" when we don't even know are first two cards are before the flop.