Tesla Is Cooked........................ Unless Donald Trump gives the company lots of government subsidies, that is.

[Celerity]

https://prospect.org/infrastructure/transportation/2025-01-03-tesla-is-cooked/


On its current track, Tesla will be an also-ran in the global EV market within a decade.

The vast majority of Elon Musk’s wealth consists of his large stake in the EV manufacturer Tesla. When Tesla’s stock price nearly doubled following the election, his wealth, at least on paper, soared to over $400 billion. But that spike plainly has nothing to do with Tesla’s business fundamentals, which are increasingly shaky—and its future prospects are even worse. The company’s best-selling models are extremely old by auto market standards, other automakers are putting up stiff competition—Chinese ones in particular are poised to massacre Tesla in the developing world—its only new model in half a decade is a flop, and Musk’s right-wing antics are poisoning its sleek, environmentalist brand. Absent more assistance from the incoming Trump administration, on its current track Tesla will be an also-ran in the global EV market within a decade. The Financial Times reports that after years of very fast growth, in 2024 Tesla’s sales fell slightly for the first time since 2011. It is still the largest EV seller in the world, but only by a tiny margin—China’s BYD, which saw a huge increase year on year, sold 1.76 million EVs, against Tesla’s 1.79 million.

At first blush, this is quite curious. Practically every country on Earth has set up some kind of green transition program, and this typically includes some kind of EV incentive. Why isn’t the biggest EV seller reaping the benefit? The first reason is an aging model lineup. The minority of Tesla investors who are not starry-eyed Elon Musk fanboys have been complaining for years that the company isn’t putting out enough new models. Every other car company has settled on a strategy of addressing as many market niches as possible—Toyota, for instance, currently lists 55 different models for sale in the U.S. (depending on how you count), and each has a half dozen or so trim levels. This is how they sell about 11 million cars a year. Tesla, by contrast, until recently had just four: one SUV and sedan in the mid-market, and one SUV and sedan in the luxury market. Now, Tesla does have a new model in the form of the Cybertruck, which many thought would be a mega-seller because Americans love pickup trucks so much.

But this has not happened. Fred Lambert at Electrek calculates: “Based on how Model S and Model X sales have been tracking, we estimate that Tesla delivered between 9,000 and 12,000 Cybertrucks in Q4, which is likely less than in Q3 despite launching the cheaper non-Foundation Series models and opening orders beyond those with reservations.” Those are pitiful numbers. It could be that American truck buyers in particular are suspicious of EVs. Ford has sold about as many F-150 Lightning models as Tesla has Cybertrucks, but about 20 to 30 times as many gas-powered F-150s. Or it could be the Cybertruck is too weird-looking and niche to have mass appeal. Or perhaps it costs too much and its features are (as usual) not nearly as good as Musk promised. Or perhaps it is harmed by its reputation for breaking down or catching on fire. Whatever the case, the Cybertruck (which can’t be sold in Europe because it is so heavy and dangerous to pedestrians, incidentally) was a huge waste of resources that could have been spent developing models for other underserved niches—above all the minivan segment, which still has no EV options from anyone yet.

The second reason for Tesla’s floundering is competition. The Big Three American automakers all have EV divisions now, and while Ford is struggling due to poor planning, GM has ironed out the kinks with its Ultium platform, has a decent variety of models, and is well on the road to profitability. What’s more, Hyundai/Kia has developed a line of fantastic models with the best driver interface in the business, combining lots of fancy whiz-bang screen technology with dedicated controls for key functions like wipers, climate control, and so on. (I own a Kona EV, for the record.) Honda’s new Prologue has even come on of late. Even as customers have soured on Tesla’s screen-first design, as it is both annoying and dangerous to look down while driving and fiddle with touch-screen menus instead of pressing a button by feel, the company has doubled down on removing traditional controls by getting rid of turn signal stalks in its new models. (That ought to be illegal, but I digress.)

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[FalloutShelter]

1. Donny is going to give Eloon NASA.

We're going to Mars kids.
Fuck the Moon.

[bullimiami]

2. And probably the Postal Contract.

[LastDemocratInSC]

3. I hope those Mars bound folks

enjoy living in the equivalent of buried shipping containers and pooping in Harbor Freight buckets for the rest of their lives.

[CoopersDad]

4. I don't miss having stalks, and I admire that there are just four Tesla models

Fewer models without the different trim levels is the more sustainable business model, with fewer parts to keep in stock and a greater chance of finding replacements as vehicles age.

In the 60s most manufacturers, and especially European brands, had just a few models and very few variants.

As for stalks, fewer moving parts means fewer things to break. A big draw for this industrial designer is the utter simplicity of the car and especially the controls and lack of knobs and buttons.

[Liberal In Texas]

5. I wish he would sell the company before he ruins it completely.

New smart owners could bring it back around and might even make some affordable cars.

[BannonsLiver]

6. A gleeful, hard rec

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. New name for the cybertruck

I love this name

Link to tweet